MLB Daily DeltaWeek 15 · July 4, 2026
Portrait of Justin Sterner
Justin Sterner
ATH · P
Change to
Portrait of Nate Pearson
Nate Pearson
HOU · P
Change to
Who's more valuable, rest of season

Justin Sterner.

He projects to help you in more roto categories the rest of the way — strikeouts, ERA, and wins. Nate Pearson’s box score looks better right now, but the luck-stripped projection flips it.

Head-to-head
K
ERA
WHIP
W
SV

Justin Sterner wins 3 categories (K, ERA, W); Nate Pearson wins 1 (SV); 1 even.

04

Under the hood

Underlying skill — each value vs league avg
Fastball Velolg 94.0 · higher = better
Justin Sterner
93.4
Nate Pearson
97.7
Swinging-Strike %lg 11.0% · higher = better
Justin Sterner
16.7%
Nate Pearson
11.8%
Strikeout %lg 22.0% · higher = better
Justin Sterner
25.3%
Nate Pearson
19.4%
Chase %lg 28.5% · higher = better
Justin Sterner
36.0%
Nate Pearson
29.8%
Hard-Hit % Allowedlg 40.0% · lower = better
Justin Sterner
45.0%
Nate Pearson
33.3%
Barrel % Allowedlg 8.0% · lower = better
Justin Sterner
7.3%
Nate Pearson
8.3%
xwOBA Allowedlg .315 · lower = better
Justin Sterner
.261
Nate Pearson
.332
stabilized — trust it · small sample yet · dashed = league avg · right = better
05

The tape

Rest-of-season projection · bold = leads
rest-of-season projection current season projection range
Rate · earned-run quality
ERAlower is better
Justin Sterner
25.18
lg xERA 4.10
now 3.54
3.63
Nate Pearson
25.18
lg xERA 4.10
now 0.00
3.70
WHIPlower is better
Justin Sterner
1.021.31
now 1.11
1.24
Nate Pearson
1.021.31
now 1.09
1.24

Volume · rest of season
Strikeoutshigher is better
Justin Sterner
4035.60
now 26
25
Nate Pearson
4035.60
now 2
12
Winshigher is better
Justin Sterner
.0004.20
now 2
13
Nate Pearson
.0004.20
now 0
00
Saveshigher is better
Justin Sterner
.00014
now 0
0
Nate Pearson
.00014
now 1
210
If you already own them — trade angle
Hold · wait & seeJustin Sterner — hold.conf 0.50
Hold · wait & seeNate Pearson — hold.conf 0.50
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