Rest of Season Projection
MattCategoryRyan
65K ←56
4.09ERA ←4.19
1.30WHIP ←1.31
2–4W →4–8
0SV0
Current Season
MattCategoryRyan
22K ←19
8.49ERA →4.85
1.71WHIP →1.31
1W →2
0SV0
What Each Player's System Trusts
Matt Waldron
- xeraNOISEluck-free xERA 3.79 sits 0.31 below league — a real arm the ERA is hiding
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.384 elevated and unstable — bloating the ERA
Ryan Feltner
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.240 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
- xeraNOISEluck-free xERA 5.75 is 0.55 above the ERA — regression coming
Matt Waldron: 65 K / 4.09 ERA. Ryan Feltner: 56 K / 4.19 ERA. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).