Rest of Season Projection
NolanCategoryZack
8HR →10
47R ←43
47RBI ←39
2SB →12
.246AVG ←.228
Current Season
NolanCategoryZack
8HR ←6
28R ←21
28RBI ←19
1SB →6
.270AVG ←.259
What Each Player's System Trusts
Nolan Arenado
- xwobaSIGNALskill near league average (0.336)
Zack Gelof
- babipNOISEBABIP 0.320 far above league and nowhere near stable — inflating the line
- xwobaNOISEluck-free skill 0.294 is 0.030 below the surface — regression coming
Nolan Arenado: 8 HR / 47 R. Zack Gelof: 10 HR / 43 R. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).