MLB Daily DeltaWeek 31 · October 26, 2026
Engraved portrait of Amed Rosario
244 PA · week 31
this weekHOLD
last weekHOLD

Amed Rosario

data as of October 26, 2026·week 31
Hold · steady skill near league average (0.309); hold steady — skill tracks near league, no edge either way.med 0.60
ROSAVG .000HR 0R 0RBI 0SB 0

Rosario is a hold — league-average skill, nothing pulling either way.

His expected wOBA is .309, six points below the league average of .315, and he has 244 plate appearances — past the point where that number becomes reliable. His actual wOBA is .297, close enough that no luck story is dragging the line down. The contact quality matches the surface: 90.2 mph average exit velocity, a 39.3% hard-hit rate and a 10.4% barrel rate, all within a rounding error of league. The one thing trending the wrong way is his expected wOBA trajectory, which has stepped down across the sample. His walk rate and swinging-strike rate run worse than league, but neither moves this call. This is what average looks like — there is no edge to buy and nothing to sell. Hold. 0 HR / 0 R / 0 RBI / 0 SB / .000 AVG is pure streaming-only — a waiver-level hold, deep-league filler at best.

VS His Norm

  • Barrel %10.4%—+6.1% ▲vs his ~4.3% career norm

Drivers

  • xwobaSIGNALskill near league average (0.309)
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Avg Exit Velo90.2 mph
90.2 mph*
lg avg 89.0 mph ▲+1.2 mphvs his norm —
173 / 50 BBE
Hard-Hit %39.3%
39.3%*
lg avg 40.0% ▼−0.7%vs his norm —
173 / 50 BBE
Barrel %10.4%
norm10.4%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+2.4%vs his norm +6.1% ▲
173 / 60 BBE
xwOBA.309
.309*
lg avg .315 ▼−.006vs his norm —
244 / 160 PA
wOBA.297
.297*
lg avg .315 ▼−.018vs his norm —
244 / 200 PA
Strikeout %23.4%
23.4%*
lg avg 22.0% ▲+1.4%vs his norm —
244 / 60 PA
Walk %5.7%
5.7%*
lg avg 8.5% ▼−2.8%vs his norm —
244 / 120 PA
BABIP.270
norm.270*
lg avg .295 ▼−.025vs his norm −.053 ▼BABIP is below his ~.324 norm — expect it to rise.
173 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %14.8%
14.8%*
lg avg 11.0% ▲+3.8%vs his norm —
244 / 50 PA
Chase %40.8%
40.8%*
lg avg 28.5% ▲+12.3%vs his norm —
244 / 50 PA

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
Barrel% 10.4%→7.1%signal0 HR — Barrel% 10.4% (signal) tempered to career ~4.3% → projected 7.1%.
BABIP 0.270→0.260 regressednoise.000 AVG — BABIP 0.270 is noise, regressed toward xBA-implied 0.258 (xBA 0.250) → 0.260.
on-base + lineup0 R — his run rate over ~0 projected PA.
slugging + lineup0 RBI — his RBI rate over ~0 projected PA.
run rate / role0 SB — his steal rate (0 in 32 G) over ~0 projected PA.
rosterdroprotational counting only

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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