MLB Daily DeltaWeek 17 · July 18, 2026
Engraved portrait of Amed Rosario
165 PA · week 17
this weekHOLD
last weekHOLD

Amed Rosario

NYY·3B
data as of July 18, 2026·week 17
Hold · steady skill near league average (0.315); hold steady — skill tracks near league, no edge either way.med 0.60
ROSHR 3AVG .207R 20RBI 30SB 0

Rosario is a hold — league average, stable, no edge.

His expected wOBA is .315, which is exactly league average, and he has reached the 160 plate appearances needed for that number to be reliable. His actual wOBA tracks close to that, so there is no luck pulling the line either way. His barrel rate is 11.4% — above the 8.0% league average — but his hard-hit rate is 39.5%, nearly the league mark. His strikeout rate is slightly elevated at 24.2%, and his walk rate is below the 8.5% average. The underlying numbers are stable and show a roughly average hitter with a bit more pop and less patience than the mean. There is no signal to buy and no signal to sell. If you have him, he can sit on the bench until the profile shifts. Hold. With 3 HR / 20 R / 30 RBI / 0 SB / .207 AVG, Rosario is a deep-league hold but a drop in standard formats.

VS His Norm

  • Barrel %11.4%—+7.1% ▲vs his ~4.3% career norm

Drivers

  • xwobaSIGNALskill near league average (0.315)
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Avg Exit Velo90.2 mph
90.2 mph*
lg avg 89.0 mph ▲+1.2 mphvs his norm —
114 / 50 BBE
Hard-Hit %39.5%
39.5%*
lg avg 40.0% ▼−0.5%vs his norm —
114 / 50 BBE
Barrel %11.4%
norm11.4%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+3.4%vs his norm +7.1% ▲
114 / 60 BBE
xwOBA.315
.315*
lg avg .315 .000vs his norm —
165 / 160 PA
wOBA.317
.317*
lg avg .315 ▲+.002vs his norm —wOBA is above the ~.315 league average — expect it to fall.
165 / 200 PA
Strikeout %24.2%
24.2%*
lg avg 22.0% ▲+2.2%vs his norm —
165 / 60 PA
Walk %6.7%
6.7%*
lg avg 8.5% ▼−1.8%vs his norm —
165 / 120 PA
BABIP.257
norm.257*
lg avg .295 ▼−.038vs his norm −.067 ▼BABIP is below his ~.324 norm — expect it to rise.
114 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %14.6%
14.6%*
lg avg 11.0% ▲+3.6%vs his norm —
165 / 50 PA
Chase %39.2%
39.2%*
lg avg 28.5% ▲+10.7%vs his norm —
165 / 50 PA

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
Barrel% 11.4%→6.8%signal3 HR — Barrel% 11.4% (signal) tempered to career ~4.3% → projected 6.8%.
BABIP 0.257→0.252 regressednoise.207 AVG — BABIP 0.257 is noise, regressed toward xBA-implied 0.251 (xBA 0.245) → 0.252.
on-base + lineup20 R — his run rate over ~152 projected PA.
slugging + lineup30 RBI — his RBI rate over ~152 projected PA.
run rate / role0 SB — his steal rate (0 in 32 G) over ~152 projected PA.
rosterdroprotational counting only

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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