68 PA · week 27
this weekHOLD
last weekNO CALL
Bryce Teodosio
data as of September 27, 2026·week 27
new call as of September 27, 2026
Hold · wait & see strikeout rate 35% is stable and high, caps the floor — skill near league average (0.209); BABIP 0.316 sits above league and is not yet stable, expect some of the average to regress; hold and wait — key skill metric not yet stable enough to call.med 0.50 (narrative held for review)
ROSAVG .000HR 0R 0RBI 0SB 0
Teodosio is a hold — no edge either way.
ROS projects AVG .204 YTD → .000 ROS. Stable, rosterable; no clear edge to exploit either way.
Drivers
- xwobaNOISEskill near league average (0.209)
- k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 35% is stable and high — caps the floor
- babipNOISEBABIP 0.316 sits above league and is not yet stable — expect some of the average to regress
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Avg Exit Velo81.4 mph
lg avg 89.0 mph ▼−7.6 mphvs his norm —Avg Exit Velo is below the ~89.0 mph league average — expect it to rise.
39 / 50 BBE
Hard-Hit %17.9%
lg avg 40.0% ▼−22.1%vs his norm —Hard-Hit % is below the ~40.0% league average — expect it to rise.
39 / 50 BBE
Barrel %5.1%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−2.9%vs his norm +0.8% ▲Barrel % is above his ~4.3% norm — expect it to fall.
39 / 60 BBE
xwOBA.209
lg avg .315 ▼−.106vs his norm —xwOBA is below the ~.315 league average — expect it to rise.
68 / 160 PA
wOBA.223
lg avg .315 ▼−.092vs his norm —wOBA is below the ~.315 league average — expect it to rise.
68 / 200 PA
Strikeout %35.3%
lg avg 22.0% ▲+13.3%vs his norm —
68 / 60 PA
Walk %7.4%
lg avg 8.5% ▼−1.1%vs his norm —Walk % is below the ~8.5% league average — expect it to rise.
68 / 120 PA
BABIP.316
lg avg .295 ▲+.021vs his norm +.033 ▲BABIP is above his ~.283 norm — expect it to fall.
39 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %20.4%
lg avg 11.0% ▲+9.3%vs his norm —
68 / 50 PA
Chase %37.5%
lg avg 28.5% ▲+9.0%vs his norm —
68 / 50 PA
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
Barrel% 5.1%→4.4%noise0 HR — Barrel% 5.1% (noise) tempered to career ~4.3% → projected 4.4%.
BABIP 0.316→0.248 regressednoise.000 AVG — BABIP 0.316 is noise, regressed toward xBA-implied 0.244 (xBA 0.163) → 0.248.
on-base + lineup0 R — his run rate over ~0 projected PA.
slugging + lineup0 RBI — his RBI rate over ~0 projected PA.
run rate / role0 SB — his steal rate (4 in 35 G) over ~0 projected PA.
rosterdroprotational counting only
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.