MLB Daily DeltaWeek 12 · June 13, 2026
181 PA · week 12
this weekBUY-LOW
last week

Cal Raleigh

data as of June 13, 2026·week 12
ON THE 10-DAY IL
Buy Low contact quality already past its threshold and intact, the bat is fine; strikeout rate 32% is stable and high, caps the floor — BABIP 0.192 suppressed and unstable, dragging results below the bat; buy the player, not the number.med 0.67 (narrative held for review)
ROSHR 12AVG .180R 27RBI 30SB 3

Raleigh is a buy-low — cold line hides a steady bat.

Cold results, but stable contact quality and a depressed BABIP say the slump is noise. Buy low.

VS His Norm

  • Barrel %12.3%−3.7%vs his ~16.0% career norm

Drivers

  • babipNOISEBABIP 0.192 suppressed and unstable — dragging results below the bat
  • hard_hit_pctSIGNALcontact quality already past its threshold and intact — the bat is fine
  • k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 32% is stable and high — caps the floor
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Avg Exit Velo87.5 mph
87.5 mph*
lg avg 89.0 mph −1.5 mphvs his norm —
106 / 50 BBE
Hard-Hit %31.1%
31.1%*
lg avg 40.0% −8.9%vs his norm —
106 / 50 BBE
Barrel %12.3%
norm12.3%*
lg avg 8.0% +4.3%vs his norm −3.7%
106 / 60 BBE
xwOBA.289
.289*
lg avg .315 −.026vs his norm —
181 / 160 PA
wOBA.252
.252*
lg avg .315 −.063vs his norm —wOBA is below the ~.315 league averageexpect it to rise.
181 / 200 PA
Strikeout %31.5%
31.5%*
lg avg 22.0% +9.5%vs his norm —
181 / 60 PA
Walk %9.9%
9.9%*
lg avg 8.5% +1.4%vs his norm —
181 / 120 PA
BABIP.192
norm.192*
lg avg .295 −.103vs his norm −.065 BABIP is below his ~.257 normexpect it to rise.
106 / 800 BIP

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
Barrel% 12.3%→14.7%signal12 HR — Barrel% 12.3% (signal) lifted to career ~16.0% → projected 14.7%.
BABIP 0.192→0.225 regressednoise.180 AVG — BABIP 0.192 is noise, regressed toward xBA-implied 0.230 (xBA 0.180) → 0.225.
on-base + lineup27 R — his run rate over ~302 projected PA.
slugging + lineup30 RBI — his RBI rate over ~302 projected PA.
run rate / role3 SB — his steal rate (2 in 41 G) over ~302 projected PA.
rosterdroprotational counting only

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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