Is Cal Raleigh a buy or sell for fantasy baseball?

Sell — metrics are consistently below average with signal behind the decline.

What is Cal Raleigh's rest-of-season outlook?

xwOBA .284 with 32% strikeouts — can't make contact.

316 PA · week 18

this weekSELL

last weekSELL

Cal Raleigh

SEA·C

data as of July 28, 2026·week 18

Sell stable xwOBA 0.284 below league with no luck excuse; strikeout rate 32% is stable and high, caps the floor; move on.med 0.61

ROSHR 5AVG .175R 14RBI 15SB 2

Raleigh is a sell — skill is below league, no luck to blame.

His expected wOBA sits at .284, 31 points below league average, and that number is reliable after 316 plate appearances. His actual wOBA of .260 is even lower, so there is no luck story propping it up — his BABIP luck has actually been slightly favorable. The bat lacks impact: 88.1 mph average exit velocity and a 32.6% hard-hit rate are both below league. He does barrel the ball at 10.9%, slightly above average, but the overall contact quality is not enough to overcome the big problem. He strikes out 32% of the time, the worst mark on the team and trending up. He walks 12% of the time, but a strikeout rate that high caps his floor relentlessly. This is what he is. Sell. 5 HR / 14 R / 15 RBI / 2 SB / .175 AVG makes him a drop, even in two-catcher leagues.

VS His Norm

Barrel %10.9%—−5.1% ▼vs his ~16.0% career norm

Drivers

xwobaSIGNALstable xwOBA 0.284 below league with no luck excuse
k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 32% is stable and high — caps the floor

metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?

Avg Exit Velo88.1 mph

lg avg 89.0 mph ▼−0.9 mphvs his norm —

175 / 50 BBE

Hard-Hit %32.6%

lg avg 40.0% ▼−7.4%vs his norm —

175 / 50 BBE

Barrel %10.9%

lg avg 8.0% ▲+2.9%vs his norm −5.1% ▼

175 / 60 BBE

xwOBA.284

lg avg .315 ▼−.031vs his norm —

316 / 160 PA

wOBA.260

lg avg .315 ▼−.055vs his norm —

316 / 200 PA

Strikeout %32.0%

lg avg 22.0% ▲+10.0%vs his norm —

316 / 60 PA

Walk %12.0%

lg avg 8.5% ▲+3.5%vs his norm —

316 / 120 PA

BABIP.212

lg avg .295 ▼−.083vs his norm −.045 ▼BABIP is below his ~.257 norm — expect it to rise.

175 / 800 BIP

Swinging-Strike %16.0%

lg avg 11.0% ▲+5.0%vs his norm —

316 / 50 PA

Chase %36.9%

lg avg 28.5% ▲+8.4%vs his norm —

316 / 50 PA

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf

Barrel% 10.9%→13.6%signal5 HR — Barrel% 10.9% (signal) lifted to career ~16.0% → projected 13.6%.

BABIP 0.212→0.226 regressednoise.175 AVG — BABIP 0.212 is noise, regressed toward xBA-implied 0.230 (xBA 0.176) → 0.226.

on-base + lineup14 R — his run rate over ~156 projected PA.

slugging + lineup15 RBI — his RBI rate over ~156 projected PA.

run rate / role2 SB — his steal rate (2 in 41 G) over ~156 projected PA.

rosterdroprotational counting only

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

VS His Norm

Drivers

5×5 ROS Outlook

Comparisons