MLB Daily DeltaWeek 10 · June 3, 2026
Engraved portrait of Chris Paddack
week 10
this weekBUY-LOW
last weekBUY-LOW
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Chris Paddack

CIN·P
data as of June 3, 2026·week 10

Paddack is a buy-low — ERA inflated by BABIP noise.

ERA ugly but the underlying skill is fine and the BABIP-against is unsustainable. Buy low.

Buy Low
high0.90

Drivers

  • babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.353 elevated and unstable — bloating the ERA
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed39.8%
39.8%
lg avg 40.0% ▼−0.2%trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL161 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed8.1%
8.1%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+0.1%trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL161 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.342
.342
lg avg .315 ▲+.027trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL215 / 200 TBF
xERA4.77
4.77
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.67trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL215 / 200 TBF
ERA6.90
6.90
lg avg 4.10 ▲+2.80too early to trust
NOISE45.7 / 200 IP
Strikeout %16.3%
16.3%
lg avg 22.0% ▼−5.7%trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL215 / 70 TBF
Walk %7.9%
7.9%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−0.1%trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL215 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.353
.353
lg avg .295 ▲+.058too early to trust
NOISE161 / 800 BIP