233 PA · week 17
this weekHOLD
last weekHOLD
Dominic Smith
data as of July 18, 2026·week 17
Hold · steady skill near league average (0.314); hold steady — skill tracks near league, no edge either way.med 0.60 (narrative held for review)
ROSAVG .241HR 3R 25RBI 29SB 0
Smith is a hold — league average, stable, nothing to buy or sell.
ROS projects HR 5 YTD → 3 ROS, AVG .325 YTD → .241 ROS. Stable, rosterable; no clear edge to exploit either way.
VS His Norm
- Barrel %6.0%—−1.1% ▼vs his ~7.1% career norm
Drivers
- xwobaSIGNALskill near league average (0.314)
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Avg Exit Velo87.8 mph
lg avg 89.0 mph ▼−1.2 mphvs his norm —
183 / 50 BBE
Hard-Hit %35.5%
lg avg 40.0% ▼−4.5%vs his norm —
183 / 50 BBE
Barrel %6.0%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−2.0%vs his norm −1.1% ▼
183 / 60 BBE
xwOBA.314
lg avg .315 ▼−.001vs his norm —
233 / 160 PA
wOBA.306
lg avg .315 ▼−.009vs his norm —
233 / 200 PA
Strikeout %13.7%
lg avg 22.0% ▼−8.3%vs his norm —
233 / 60 PA
Walk %6.9%
lg avg 8.5% ▼−1.6%vs his norm —
233 / 120 PA
BABIP.278
lg avg .295 ▼−.017vs his norm −.021 ▼BABIP is below his ~.299 norm — expect it to rise.
183 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %9.9%
lg avg 11.0% ▼−1.1%vs his norm —
233 / 50 PA
Chase %32.1%
lg avg 28.5% ▲+3.6%vs his norm —
233 / 50 PA
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
Barrel% 6.0%→6.6%signal3 HR — Barrel% 6.0% (signal) lifted to career ~7.1% → projected 6.6%.
BABIP 0.278→0.269 regressednoise.241 AVG — BABIP 0.278 is noise, regressed toward xBA-implied 0.266 (xBA 0.258) → 0.269.
on-base + lineup25 R — his run rate over ~157 projected PA.
slugging + lineup29 RBI — his RBI rate over ~157 projected PA.
run rate / role0 SB — his steal rate (0 in 47 G) over ~157 projected PA.
rosterdroprotational counting only
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.