MLB Daily DeltaWeek 25 · September 10, 2026
Engraved portrait of Drew Gilbert
359 PA · week 25
this weekHOLD
last weekHOLD

Drew Gilbert

data as of September 10, 2026·week 25
Hold · leans buy skill near league average (0.324); a hold that leans buy — skill sits a hair above league, worth watching.med 0.60
ROSHR 0AVG .231R 3RBI 3SB 0

Gilbert is a hold — the number is league average and stable

His expected wOBA is .324, just nine points above the league average of .315, and 359 plate appearances is well past the point where that number becomes reliable. The gap to his actual wOBA of .306 is small, so no luck stat is flattering or burying the line. The underlying contact is merely ordinary: 86.3 mph off the bat, a 35.3% hard-hit rate, and 5.2% barrels, all a touch under league. What he does well is avoid the empty swing — an 18.1% strikeout rate and a 9.6% swing-and-miss rate, both better than league. His expected wOBA has been stepping up across the sample, which keeps this from being a pure dead end, but it has not stepped up far enough to change the call. Nothing here is unstable and nothing is hiding. Hold. With 0 HR / 3 R / 3 RBI / 0 SB and a .231 AVG ROS, this is rotational streaming-only depth, not a deep-league stash worth holding.

VS His Norm

  • Barrel %5.2%+0.3%vs his ~4.9% career norm

Drivers

  • xwobaSIGNALskill near league average (0.324)
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Avg Exit Velo86.3 mph
86.3 mph*
lg avg 89.0 mph −2.7 mphvs his norm —
252 / 50 BBE
Hard-Hit %35.3%
35.3%*
lg avg 40.0% −4.7%vs his norm —
252 / 50 BBE
Barrel %5.2%
norm5.2%*
lg avg 8.0% −2.8%vs his norm +0.3%
252 / 60 BBE
xwOBA.324
believable since Jun 18.324*
lg avg .315 +.009vs his norm —
359 / 160 PA
wOBA.306
.306*
lg avg .315 −.009vs his norm —
359 / 200 PA
Strikeout %18.1%
18.1%*
lg avg 22.0% −3.9%vs his norm —
359 / 60 PA
Walk %9.5%
9.5%*
lg avg 8.5% +1.0%vs his norm —
359 / 120 PA
BABIP.264
norm.264*
lg avg .295 −.031vs his norm +.034 BABIP is above his ~.230 normexpect it to fall.
252 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %9.6%
9.6%*
lg avg 11.0% −1.4%vs his norm —
359 / 50 PA
Chase %25.9%
25.9%*
lg avg 28.5% −2.6%vs his norm —
359 / 50 PA

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
Barrel% 5.2%→5.1%signal0 HR — Barrel% 5.2% (signal) tempered to career ~4.9% → projected 5.1%.
BABIP 0.264→0.285 regressednoise.231 AVG — BABIP 0.264 is noise, regressed toward xBA-implied 0.295 (xBA 0.254) → 0.285.
on-base + lineup3 R — his run rate over ~36 projected PA.
slugging + lineup3 RBI — his RBI rate over ~36 projected PA.
run rate / role0 SB — his steal rate (0 in 41 G) over ~36 projected PA.
rosterdroprotational counting only

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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