MLB Daily DeltaWeek 31 · October 26, 2026
Engraved portrait of Drew Gilbert
393 PA · week 31
this weekHOLD
last weekHOLD

Drew Gilbert

SF·CF
data as of October 26, 2026·week 31
Hold · leans buy skill near league average (0.334); a hold that leans buy — skill sits a hair above league, worth watching.med 0.60
ROSAVG .000HR 0R 0RBI 0SB 0

Gilbert is a hold — league-average skill, nothing unstable underneath.

His expected wOBA is .334, nineteen points above the league average of .315, and with 393 plate appearances that number is past the point where it becomes reliable. His actual wOBA is .320, close enough to it that balls in play are not skewing the line either direction. The plate discipline is quietly solid: he strikes out 18.1% of the time against a league average of 22%, walks 9.9%, and chases less than most hitters at 25.1%. He is not a masher — 86.8 mph average exit velocity and a 37.2% hard-hit rate both sit below league — and the expected wOBA has been stepping up across the sample. That is a stable, average hitter getting ordinary results. No edge to buy and nothing to sell. Hold. A 0 HR / 0 R / 0 RBI / 0 SB line is a zero-count tax; hold as depth, but this is a drop-tier profile.

VS His Norm

  • Barrel %5.8%—+0.9% ▲vs his ~4.9% career norm

Drivers

  • xwobaSIGNALskill near league average (0.334)
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Avg Exit Velo86.8 mph
86.8 mph*
lg avg 89.0 mph ▼−2.2 mphvs his norm —
274 / 50 BBE
Hard-Hit %37.2%
37.2%*
lg avg 40.0% ▼−2.8%vs his norm —
274 / 50 BBE
Barrel %5.8%
norm5.8%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−2.2%vs his norm +0.9% ▲
274 / 60 BBE
xwOBA.334
believable since Jun 18.334*
lg avg .315 ▲+.019vs his norm —
393 / 160 PA
wOBA.320
.320*
lg avg .315 ▲+.005vs his norm —
393 / 200 PA
Strikeout %18.1%
18.1%*
lg avg 22.0% ▼−3.9%vs his norm —
393 / 60 PA
Walk %9.9%
9.9%*
lg avg 8.5% ▲+1.4%vs his norm —
393 / 120 PA
BABIP.268
norm.268*
lg avg .295 ▼−.027vs his norm +.038 ▲BABIP is above his ~.230 norm — expect it to fall.
274 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %9.4%
9.4%*
lg avg 11.0% ▼−1.6%vs his norm —
393 / 50 PA
Chase %25.1%
25.1%*
lg avg 28.5% ▼−3.4%vs his norm —
393 / 50 PA

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
Barrel% 5.8%→5.4%signal0 HR — Barrel% 5.8% (signal) tempered to career ~4.9% → projected 5.4%.
BABIP 0.268→0.291 regressednoise.000 AVG — BABIP 0.268 is noise, regressed toward xBA-implied 0.303 (xBA 0.260) → 0.291.
on-base + lineup0 R — his run rate over ~0 projected PA.
slugging + lineup0 RBI — his RBI rate over ~0 projected PA.
run rate / role0 SB — his steal rate (0 in 41 G) over ~0 projected PA.
rosterdroprotational counting only

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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