91 PA · week 31
this weekHOLD
last weekHOLD
Grant McCray
data as of October 26, 2026·week 31
Hold · wait & see strikeout rate 31% is stable and high, caps the floor — skill near league average (0.291); hold and wait — key skill metric not yet stable enough to call.med 0.50 (narrative held for review)
ROSAVG .000HR 0R 0RBI 0SB 0
McCray is a hold — league average with a strikeout problem.
ROS projects AVG .000 YTD → .000 ROS. Stable, rosterable; no clear edge to exploit either way.
Drivers
- xwobaNOISEskill near league average (0.291)
- k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 31% is stable and high — caps the floor
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Avg Exit Velo87.4 mph
lg avg 89.0 mph ▼−1.6 mphvs his norm —
52 / 50 BBE
Hard-Hit %30.8%
lg avg 40.0% ▼−9.2%vs his norm —
52 / 50 BBE
Barrel %11.5%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+3.5%vs his norm −0.3% ▼Barrel % is below his ~11.8% norm — expect it to rise.
52 / 60 BBE
xwOBA.291
lg avg .315 ▼−.024vs his norm —xwOBA is below the ~.315 league average — expect it to rise.
91 / 160 PA
wOBA.236
lg avg .315 ▼−.079vs his norm —wOBA is below the ~.315 league average — expect it to rise.
91 / 200 PA
Strikeout %30.8%
lg avg 22.0% ▲+8.8%vs his norm —
91 / 60 PA
Walk %12.1%
lg avg 8.5% ▲+3.6%vs his norm —Walk % is above the ~8.5% league average — expect it to fall.
91 / 120 PA
BABIP.191
lg avg .295 ▼−.104vs his norm −.102 ▼BABIP is below his ~.293 norm — expect it to rise.
52 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %15.6%
lg avg 11.0% ▲+4.6%vs his norm —
91 / 50 PA
Chase %27.3%
lg avg 28.5% ▼−1.2%vs his norm —
91 / 50 PA
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
Barrel% 11.5%→11.7%noise0 HR — Barrel% 11.5% (noise) lifted to career ~11.8% → projected 11.7%.
BABIP 0.191→0.227 regressednoise.000 AVG — BABIP 0.191 is noise, regressed toward xBA-implied 0.230 (xBA 0.210) → 0.227.
on-base + lineup0 R — his run rate over ~0 projected PA.
slugging + lineup0 RBI — his RBI rate over ~0 projected PA.
run rate / role0 SB — his steal rate (1 in 1 G) over ~0 projected PA.
rosterdroprotational counting only
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.