MLB Daily DeltaWeek 18 · July 28, 2026
Engraved portrait of Harrison Bader
111 PA · week 18
this weekBUY-LOW
last weekBUY-LOW

Harrison Bader

SF·CF
data as of July 28, 2026·week 18
ON THE 10-DAY IL
Buy Low contact quality already past its threshold and intact, the bat is fine; strikeout rate 31% is stable and high, caps the floor — BABIP 0.191 suppressed and unstable, dragging results below the bat; buy the player, not the number.med 0.67
ROSHR 2AVG .184R 12RBI 17SB 0

Bader is a buy-low — BABIP slump, not a bat problem.

His hard-hit rate has stepped up across the sample and now sits at 41.1% — slightly above the league average and built on 73 batted balls, well past the 50 where contact quality becomes reliable. The bat is fine. His BABIP, however, is .191 — over 100 points below league average — and BABIP needs around 800 balls in play to stabilize. He has 73. That gap is luck, dragging his actual wOBA (.238) well below his expected wOBA (.272). The caveat is a strikeout rate that has also stepped up and is now 30.6%, about 9 points above average — that caps the floor, but the underlying contact quality says the cold line is mostly noise, not a skill decline. Buy low. Projected 2 HR / 12 R / 17 RBI / 0 SB / .184 AVG makes him a streaming-only drop — the luck correction isn't enough to start.

VS His Norm

  • Barrel %8.2%—+0.8% ▲vs his ~7.4% career norm

Drivers

  • babipNOISEBABIP 0.191 suppressed and unstable — dragging results below the bat
  • hard_hit_pctSIGNALcontact quality already past its threshold and intact — the bat is fine
  • k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 31% is stable and high — caps the floor
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Avg Exit Velo89.2 mph
89.2 mph*
lg avg 89.0 mph ▲+0.2 mphvs his norm —
73 / 50 BBE
Hard-Hit %41.1%
41.1%*
lg avg 40.0% ▲+1.1%vs his norm —
73 / 50 BBE
Barrel %8.2%
norm8.2%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+0.2%vs his norm +0.8% ▲
73 / 60 BBE
xwOBA.272
.272*
lg avg .315 ▼−.043vs his norm —xwOBA is below the ~.315 league average — expect it to rise.
111 / 160 PA
wOBA.238
.238*
lg avg .315 ▼−.077vs his norm —wOBA is below the ~.315 league average — expect it to rise.
111 / 200 PA
Strikeout %30.6%
30.6%*
lg avg 22.0% ▲+8.6%vs his norm —
111 / 60 PA
Walk %3.6%
3.6%*
lg avg 8.5% ▼−4.9%vs his norm —Walk % is below the ~8.5% league average — expect it to rise.
111 / 120 PA
BABIP.191
norm.191*
lg avg .295 ▼−.104vs his norm −.115 ▼BABIP is below his ~.305 norm — expect it to rise.
73 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %17.1%
17.1%*
lg avg 11.0% ▲+6.1%vs his norm —
111 / 50 PA
Chase %38.7%
38.7%*
lg avg 28.5% ▲+10.2%vs his norm —
111 / 50 PA

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
Barrel% 8.2%→7.6%signal2 HR — Barrel% 8.2% (signal) tempered to career ~7.4% → projected 7.6%.
BABIP 0.191→0.253 regressednoise.184 AVG — BABIP 0.191 is noise, regressed toward xBA-implied 0.260 (xBA 0.215) → 0.253.
on-base + lineup12 R — his run rate over ~136 projected PA.
slugging + lineup17 RBI — his RBI rate over ~136 projected PA.
run rate / role0 SB — his steal rate (0 in 30 G) over ~136 projected PA.
rosterdroprotational counting only

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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