MLB Daily DeltaWeek 12 · June 13, 2026
Engraved portrait of Harrison Bader
111 PA · week 12
this weekBUY-LOW
last week—

Harrison Bader

SF·CF
data as of June 13, 2026·week 12
ON THE 10-DAY IL
Buy Low contact quality already past its threshold and intact, the bat is fine; strikeout rate 31% is stable and high, caps the floor — BABIP 0.191 suppressed and unstable, dragging results below the bat; buy the player, not the number.med 0.66
ROSHR 6AVG .190R 23RBI 33SB 0

Bader is a buy-low — the slump is BABIP noise, not the bat.

His BABIP is .191, more than 100 points below the league average of .295, and BABIP needs around 800 balls in play to be reliable. He has 73. That gap is luck, not a decline in his bat. His hard-hit rate has stepped up across the sample and sits at 41.1%, just above league average, and it is stable past the 50-batted-ball threshold. His barrel rate and exit velocity are also at or above average. The high 30.6% strikeout rate is real and caps the floor, but the contact quality underneath says the current .240 wOBA will climb once the bounces normalize. Buy low.

VS His Norm

  • Barrel %8.2%—+0.8% ▲vs his ~7.4% career norm

Drivers

  • babipNOISEBABIP 0.191 suppressed and unstable — dragging results below the bat
  • hard_hit_pctSIGNALcontact quality already past its threshold and intact — the bat is fine
  • k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 31% is stable and high — caps the floor
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Avg Exit Velo89.2 mph
89.2 mph*
lg avg 89.0 mph ▲+0.2 mphvs his norm —
73 / 50 BBE
Hard-Hit %41.1%
41.1%*
lg avg 40.0% ▲+1.1%vs his norm —
73 / 50 BBE
Barrel %8.2%
norm8.2%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+0.2%vs his norm +0.8% ▲
73 / 60 BBE
xwOBA.272
.272*
lg avg .315 ▼−.043vs his norm —xwOBA is below the ~.315 league average — expect it to rise.
111 / 160 PA
wOBA.240
.240*
lg avg .315 ▼−.075vs his norm —wOBA is below the ~.315 league average — expect it to rise.
111 / 200 PA
Strikeout %30.6%
30.6%*
lg avg 22.0% ▲+8.6%vs his norm —
111 / 60 PA
Walk %3.6%
3.6%*
lg avg 8.5% ▼−4.9%vs his norm —Walk % is below the ~8.5% league average — expect it to rise.
111 / 120 PA
BABIP.191
norm.191*
lg avg .295 ▼−.104vs his norm −.115 ▼BABIP is below his ~.305 norm — expect it to rise.
73 / 800 BIP

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
Barrel% 8.2%→7.6%signal6 HR — Barrel% 8.2% (signal) tempered to career ~7.4% → projected 7.6%.
BABIP 0.191→0.253 regressednoise.190 AVG — BABIP 0.191 is noise, regressed toward xBA-implied 0.260 (xBA 0.215) → 0.253.
on-base + lineup23 R — his run rate over ~258 projected PA.
slugging + lineup33 RBI — his RBI rate over ~258 projected PA.
run rate / role0 SB — his steal rate (0 in 30 G) over ~258 projected PA.
rosterdroprotational counting only

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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