MLB Daily DeltaWeek 27 · September 27, 2026
Engraved portrait of Harrison Bader
111 PA · week 27
this weekBUY-LOW
last weekBUY-LOW

Harrison Bader

SF·CF
data as of September 27, 2026·week 27
ON THE 60-DAY IL
Buy Low contact quality already past its threshold and intact, the bat is fine; strikeout rate 31% is stable and high, caps the floor — BABIP 0.191 suppressed and unstable, dragging results below the bat; buy the player, not the number.med 0.67
ROSHR 0AVG .000R 0RBI 0SB 0

Bader is a buy-low — the bat is intact, the bounces are not.

His BABIP is .191 against a league average of .295, and that is the whole reason his line looks cold. BABIP needs around 800 balls in play to be reliable. He has 73. The contact quality underneath tells a different story: 89.2 mph average exit velocity, a 41.1% hard-hit rate, and 8.2% barrels, all past the sample threshold and all ticking up across the season. So the results are being dragged down by a stat that is still mostly luck. The caveat is his strikeout rate, which is 30.6% — stable, high, and a real cap on his batting average even when the bounces come back. Nothing here says the bat is broken. Buy low.

VS His Norm

  • Barrel %8.2%—+0.8% ▲vs his ~7.4% career norm

Drivers

  • babipNOISEBABIP 0.191 suppressed and unstable — dragging results below the bat
  • hard_hit_pctSIGNALcontact quality already past its threshold and intact — the bat is fine
  • k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 31% is stable and high — caps the floor
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Avg Exit Velo89.2 mph
89.2 mph*
lg avg 89.0 mph ▲+0.2 mphvs his norm —
73 / 50 BBE
Hard-Hit %41.1%
41.1%*
lg avg 40.0% ▲+1.1%vs his norm —
73 / 50 BBE
Barrel %8.2%
norm8.2%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+0.2%vs his norm +0.8% ▲
73 / 60 BBE
xwOBA.272
.272*
lg avg .315 ▼−.043vs his norm —xwOBA is below the ~.315 league average — expect it to rise.
111 / 160 PA
wOBA.239
.239*
lg avg .315 ▼−.076vs his norm —wOBA is below the ~.315 league average — expect it to rise.
111 / 200 PA
Strikeout %30.6%
30.6%*
lg avg 22.0% ▲+8.6%vs his norm —
111 / 60 PA
Walk %3.6%
3.6%*
lg avg 8.5% ▼−4.9%vs his norm —Walk % is below the ~8.5% league average — expect it to rise.
111 / 120 PA
BABIP.191
norm.191*
lg avg .295 ▼−.104vs his norm −.115 ▼BABIP is below his ~.305 norm — expect it to rise.
73 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %17.1%
17.1%*
lg avg 11.0% ▲+6.1%vs his norm —
111 / 50 PA
Chase %38.7%
38.7%*
lg avg 28.5% ▲+10.2%vs his norm —
111 / 50 PA

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
Barrel% 8.2%→7.6%signal0 HR — Barrel% 8.2% (signal) tempered to career ~7.4% → projected 7.6%.
BABIP 0.191→0.253 regressednoise.000 AVG — BABIP 0.191 is noise, regressed toward xBA-implied 0.260 (xBA 0.215) → 0.253.
on-base + lineup0 R — his run rate over ~0 projected PA.
slugging + lineup0 RBI — his RBI rate over ~0 projected PA.
run rate / role0 SB — his steal rate (0 in 30 G) over ~0 projected PA.
rosterdroprotational counting only

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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