MLB Daily DeltaWeek 18 · July 28, 2026
275 PA · week 18
this weekBUY
last weekBUY

Heliot Ramos

data as of July 28, 2026·week 18
Buy stable xwOBA 0.333, +0.018 vs league, production is earned; elite, already-stable contact quality — BABIP 0.333 sits above league and is not yet stable, expect some of the average to regress; add now.med 0.64
ROSHR 5AVG .268R 16RBI 17SB 0

Ramos is a buy — elite contact, xwOBA climbing.

His hard-hit rate is 50.0%, a full ten points above the league average of 40.0%, and it has been stepping up across the season — a trend backed by 186 batted balls, well past the 50 needed to stabilize. His expected wOBA sits at .333, 18 points above league, and that number has also been climbing. The actual wOBA is .317, closer to league average, held back partly by a BABIP of .333 that is elevated but not yet stable — BABIP needs about 800 balls in play to be reliable, and Ramos has 186. Expect some of his average to regress toward .290 as BABIP normalizes, but the contact quality and xwOBA are the real story. The skill is above average and trending higher. Buy. 5 HR / 16 R / 17 RBI / 0 SB / .268 AVG make him a deep-league asset worthy of a buy window.

VS His Norm

  • Barrel %15.1%+3.8%vs his ~11.3% career norm

Drivers

  • xwobaSIGNALstable xwOBA 0.333, +0.018 vs league — production is earned
  • hard_hit_pctSIGNALelite, already-stable contact quality
  • babipNOISEBABIP 0.333 sits above league and is not yet stable — expect some of the average to regress
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Avg Exit Velo92.3 mph
92.3 mph*
lg avg 89.0 mph +3.3 mphvs his norm —
186 / 50 BBE
Hard-Hit %50.0%
50.0%*
lg avg 40.0% +10.0%vs his norm —
186 / 50 BBE
Barrel %15.1%
norm15.1%*
lg avg 8.0% +7.1%vs his norm +3.8%
186 / 60 BBE
xwOBA.333
.333*
lg avg .315 +.018vs his norm —
275 / 160 PA
wOBA.317
.317*
lg avg .315 +.002vs his norm —
275 / 200 PA
Strikeout %27.3%
27.3%*
lg avg 22.0% +5.3%vs his norm —
275 / 60 PA
Walk %4.7%
4.7%*
lg avg 8.5% −3.8%vs his norm —
275 / 120 PA
BABIP.333
norm.333*
lg avg .295 +.038vs his norm +.018 BABIP is above his ~.315 normexpect it to fall.
186 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %15.4%
15.4%*
lg avg 11.0% +4.4%vs his norm —
275 / 50 PA
Chase %37.4%
37.4%*
lg avg 28.5% +8.9%vs his norm —
275 / 50 PA

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
Barrel% 15.1%→13.1%signal5 HR — Barrel% 15.1% (signal) tempered to career ~11.3% → projected 13.1%.
BABIP 0.333→0.342 regressednoise.268 AVG — BABIP 0.333 is noise, regressed toward xBA-implied 0.345 (xBA 0.269) → 0.342.
on-base + lineup16 R — his run rate over ~150 projected PA.
slugging + lineup17 RBI — his RBI rate over ~150 projected PA.
run rate / role0 SB — his steal rate (0 in 44 G) over ~150 projected PA.
rosterdeeprotational counting only

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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