397 PA · week 17
this weekHOLD
last weekBUY
Ian Happ
data as of July 18, 2026·week 17
flipped from BUY on July 18, 2026
Hold · steady skill near league average (0.319); strikeout rate 32% is stable and high, caps the floor; hold steady — skill tracks near league, no edge either way.med 0.60 (narrative held for review)
ROSHR 6AVG .182R 31RBI 25SB 2
Happ is a hold — league average, no edge either way.
ROS projects HR 13 YTD → 6 ROS, AVG .230 YTD → .182 ROS. Stable, rosterable; no clear edge to exploit either way.
VS His Norm
- Barrel %12.4%—+2.1% ▲vs his ~10.3% career norm
Drivers
- xwobaSIGNALskill near league average (0.319)
- k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 32% is stable and high — caps the floor
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Avg Exit Velo89.6 mph
lg avg 89.0 mph ▲+0.6 mphvs his norm —
217 / 50 BBE
Hard-Hit %43.5%
lg avg 40.0% ▲+3.5%vs his norm —
217 / 50 BBE
Barrel %12.4%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+4.4%vs his norm +2.1% ▲
217 / 60 BBE
xwOBA.319
lg avg .315 ▲+.004vs his norm —
397 / 160 PA
wOBA.331
lg avg .315 ▲+.016vs his norm —
397 / 200 PA
Strikeout %31.5%
lg avg 22.0% ▲+9.5%vs his norm —
397 / 60 PA
Walk %12.6%
lg avg 8.5% ▲+4.1%vs his norm —
397 / 120 PA
BABIP.290
lg avg .295 ▼−.005vs his norm −.005 ▼BABIP is below his ~.295 norm — expect it to rise.
217 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %14.3%
lg avg 11.0% ▲+3.3%vs his norm —
397 / 50 PA
Chase %24.3%
lg avg 28.5% ▼−4.2%vs his norm —
397 / 50 PA
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
Barrel% 12.4%→11.4%signal6 HR — Barrel% 12.4% (signal) tempered to career ~10.3% → projected 11.4%.
BABIP 0.290→0.247 regressednoise.182 AVG — BABIP 0.290 is noise, regressed toward xBA-implied 0.232 (xBA 0.205) → 0.247.
on-base + lineup31 R — his run rate over ~200 projected PA.
slugging + lineup25 RBI — his RBI rate over ~200 projected PA.
run rate / role2 SB — his steal rate (2 in 56 G) over ~200 projected PA.
rosterdroprotational counting only
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.