158 PA · week 27
this weekSELL-HIGH
last weekSELL-HIGH
James McCann
data as of September 27, 2026·week 27
Sell High BABIP 0.350 far above league and nowhere near stable, inflating the line; luck-free skill 0.294 is 0.036 below the surface, regression coming; sell into the hype before regression.med 0.64 (narrative held for review)
ROSHR 0AVG .000R 0RBI 0SB 0
McCann is a sell-high — his BABIP is carrying the line.
Surface line inflated by an unsustainable BABIP; the stable skill is lower. Sell high.
VS His Norm
- Barrel %9.9%—+2.1% ▲vs his ~7.8% career norm
Drivers
- babipNOISEBABIP 0.350 far above league and nowhere near stable — inflating the line
- xwobaNOISEluck-free skill 0.294 is 0.036 below the surface — regression coming
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Avg Exit Velo89.7 mph
lg avg 89.0 mph ▲+0.7 mphvs his norm —
111 / 50 BBE
Hard-Hit %44.1%
lg avg 40.0% ▲+4.1%vs his norm —
111 / 50 BBE
Barrel %9.9%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+1.9%vs his norm +2.1% ▲
111 / 60 BBE
xwOBA.294
lg avg .315 ▼−.021vs his norm —xwOBA is below the ~.315 league average — expect it to rise.
158 / 160 PA
wOBA.330
lg avg .315 ▲+.015vs his norm —wOBA is above the ~.315 league average — expect it to fall.
158 / 200 PA
Strikeout %25.3%
lg avg 22.0% ▲+3.3%vs his norm —
158 / 60 PA
Walk %3.8%
lg avg 8.5% ▼−4.7%vs his norm —
158 / 120 PA
BABIP.350
lg avg .295 ▲+.055vs his norm +.068 ▲BABIP is above his ~.282 norm — expect it to fall.
111 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %15.6%
lg avg 11.0% ▲+4.6%vs his norm —
158 / 50 PA
Chase %40.3%
lg avg 28.5% ▲+11.8%vs his norm —
158 / 50 PA
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
Barrel% 9.9%→8.6%signal0 HR — Barrel% 9.9% (signal) tempered to career ~7.8% → projected 8.6%.
BABIP 0.350→0.329 regressednoise.000 AVG — BABIP 0.350 is noise, regressed toward xBA-implied 0.325 (xBA 0.236) → 0.329.
on-base + lineup0 R — his run rate over ~0 projected PA.
slugging + lineup0 RBI — his RBI rate over ~0 projected PA.
run rate / role0 SB — his steal rate (0 in 22 G) over ~0 projected PA.
rosterdroprotational counting only
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.