89 PA · week 25
this weekHOLD
last weekHOLD
Jase Bowen
data as of September 10, 2026·week 25
Hold · wait & see strikeout rate 37% is stable and high, caps the floor — skill near league average (0.270); hold and wait — key skill metric not yet stable enough to call.med 0.50 (narrative held for review)
ROSAVG .170HR 1R 0RBI 0SB 0
Bowen is a hold — league-average skill and a strikeout problem.
ROS projects AVG .143 YTD → .170 ROS. Stable, rosterable; no clear edge to exploit either way.
Drivers
- xwobaNOISEskill near league average (0.270)
- k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 37% is stable and high — caps the floor
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Avg Exit Velo88.3 mph
lg avg 89.0 mph ▼−0.7 mphvs his norm —
51 / 50 BBE
Hard-Hit %37.3%
lg avg 40.0% ▼−2.7%vs his norm —
51 / 50 BBE
Barrel %9.8%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+1.8%vs his norm —Barrel % is above the ~8.0% league average — expect it to fall.
51 / 60 BBE
xwOBA.270
lg avg .315 ▼−.045vs his norm —xwOBA is below the ~.315 league average — expect it to rise.
89 / 160 PA
wOBA.222
lg avg .315 ▼−.093vs his norm —wOBA is below the ~.315 league average — expect it to rise.
89 / 200 PA
Strikeout %37.1%
lg avg 22.0% ▲+15.1%vs his norm —
89 / 60 PA
Walk %3.4%
lg avg 8.5% ▼−5.1%vs his norm —Walk % is below the ~8.5% league average — expect it to rise.
89 / 120 PA
BABIP.245
lg avg .295 ▼−.050vs his norm —BABIP is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
51 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %18.1%
lg avg 11.0% ▲+7.1%vs his norm —
89 / 50 PA
Chase %42.5%
lg avg 28.5% ▲+14.0%vs his norm —
89 / 50 PA
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
Barrel% 9.8%→9.4%noise1 HR — Barrel% 9.8% (noise) tempered to league ~8.0% → projected 9.4%.
BABIP 0.245→0.371 regressednoise.170 AVG — BABIP 0.245 is noise, regressed toward xBA-implied 0.380 (xBA 0.214) → 0.371.
on-base + lineup0 R — his run rate over ~33 projected PA.
slugging + lineup0 RBI — his RBI rate over ~33 projected PA.
run rate / role0 SB — his steal rate (0 in 2 G) over ~33 projected PA.
rosterdroprotational counting only
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.