103 PA · week 31
this weekHOLD
last weekHOLD
Jase Bowen
data as of October 26, 2026·week 31
Hold · wait & see strikeout rate 40% is stable and high, caps the floor — skill near league average (0.244); hold and wait — key skill metric not yet stable enough to call.med 0.50 (narrative held for review)
ROSAVG .000HR 0R 0RBI 0SB 0
Bowen is a hold — the whiffs are the whole story here.
ROS projects AVG .143 YTD → .000 ROS. Stable, rosterable; no clear edge to exploit either way.
Drivers
- xwobaNOISEskill near league average (0.244)
- k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 40% is stable and high — caps the floor
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Avg Exit Velo87.7 mph
lg avg 89.0 mph ▼−1.3 mphvs his norm —
57 / 50 BBE
Hard-Hit %33.3%
lg avg 40.0% ▼−6.7%vs his norm —
57 / 50 BBE
Barrel %8.8%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+0.8%vs his norm —Barrel % is above the ~8.0% league average — expect it to fall.
57 / 60 BBE
xwOBA.244
lg avg .315 ▼−.071vs his norm —xwOBA is below the ~.315 league average — expect it to rise.
103 / 160 PA
wOBA.196
lg avg .315 ▼−.119vs his norm —wOBA is below the ~.315 league average — expect it to rise.
103 / 200 PA
Strikeout %39.8%
lg avg 22.0% ▲+17.8%vs his norm —
103 / 60 PA
Walk %2.9%
lg avg 8.5% ▼−5.6%vs his norm —Walk % is below the ~8.5% league average — expect it to rise.
103 / 120 PA
BABIP.226
lg avg .295 ▼−.069vs his norm —BABIP is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
57 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %19.1%
lg avg 11.0% ▲+8.1%vs his norm —
103 / 50 PA
Chase %43.7%
lg avg 28.5% ▲+15.2%vs his norm —
103 / 50 PA
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
Barrel% 8.8%→8.6%noise0 HR — Barrel% 8.8% (noise) tempered to league ~8.0% → projected 8.6%.
BABIP 0.226→0.369 regressednoise.000 AVG — BABIP 0.226 is noise, regressed toward xBA-implied 0.380 (xBA 0.194) → 0.369.
on-base + lineup0 R — his run rate over ~0 projected PA.
slugging + lineup0 RBI — his RBI rate over ~0 projected PA.
run rate / role0 SB — his steal rate (0 in 2 G) over ~0 projected PA.
rosterdroprotational counting only
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.