407 PA · week 17
this weekBUY
last weekBUY
JJ Wetherholt
data as of July 18, 2026·week 17
Buy stable xwOBA 0.351, +0.036 vs league, production is earned; elite, already-stable contact quality; add now.med 0.67 (narrative held for review)
ROSHR 4AVG .240R 30RBI 19SB 5
Wetherholt is a buy — the contact is real and trending up.
Stable, above-average skill with no luck propping it up. Buy.
Drivers
- xwobaSIGNALstable xwOBA 0.351, +0.036 vs league — production is earned
- hard_hit_pctSIGNALelite, already-stable contact quality
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Avg Exit Velo90.0 mph
lg avg 89.0 mph ▲+1.0 mphvs his norm —
289 / 50 BBE
Hard-Hit %45.5%
lg avg 40.0% ▲+5.5%vs his norm —
289 / 50 BBE
Barrel %7.3%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−0.7%vs his norm —
289 / 60 BBE
xwOBA.351
lg avg .315 ▲+.036vs his norm —
407 / 160 PA
wOBA.337
lg avg .315 ▲+.022vs his norm —
407 / 200 PA
Strikeout %15.7%
lg avg 22.0% ▼−6.3%vs his norm —
407 / 60 PA
Walk %9.8%
lg avg 8.5% ▲+1.3%vs his norm —
407 / 120 PA
BABIP.283
lg avg .295 ▼−.012vs his norm —BABIP is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
289 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %8.8%
lg avg 11.0% ▼−2.2%vs his norm —
407 / 50 PA
Chase %22.6%
lg avg 28.5% ▼−5.9%vs his norm —
407 / 50 PA
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
Barrel% 7.3%→7.4%signal4 HR — Barrel% 7.3% (signal) lifted to league ~8.0% → projected 7.4%.
BABIP 0.283→0.281 regressednoise.240 AVG — BABIP 0.283 is noise, regressed toward xBA-implied 0.280 (xBA 0.261) → 0.281.
on-base + lineup30 R — his run rate over ~203 projected PA.
slugging + lineup19 RBI — his RBI rate over ~203 projected PA.
run rate / role5 SB — his steal rate (7 in 57 G) over ~203 projected PA.
rosterdeeprotational counting only
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.