MLB Daily DeltaWeek 25 · September 10, 2026
88 PA · week 25
this weekHOLD
last weekHOLD

Joshua Báez

data as of September 10, 2026·week 25
Hold · wait & see strikeout rate 33% is stable and high, caps the floor — skill near league average (0.316); hold and wait — key skill metric not yet stable enough to call.med 0.50 (narrative held for review)
ROSAVG .174HR 1R 7RBI 10SB 0

Báez is a hold — big contact, big strikeouts cancel out.

ROS projects AVG .143 YTD → .174 ROS. Stable, rosterable; no clear edge to exploit either way.

Drivers

  • xwobaNOISEskill near league average (0.316)
  • k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 33% is stable and high — caps the floor
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Avg Exit Velo93.6 mph
93.6 mph*
lg avg 89.0 mph +4.6 mphvs his norm —
52 / 50 BBE
Hard-Hit %51.9%
51.9%*
lg avg 40.0% +11.9%vs his norm —
52 / 50 BBE
Barrel %13.5%
13.5%*
lg avg 8.0% +5.5%vs his norm —Barrel % is above the ~8.0% league averageexpect it to fall.
52 / 60 BBE
xwOBA.316
.316*
lg avg .315 +.001vs his norm —xwOBA is above the ~.315 league averageexpect it to fall.
88 / 160 PA
wOBA.358
.358*
lg avg .315 +.043vs his norm —wOBA is above the ~.315 league averageexpect it to fall.
88 / 200 PA
Strikeout %33.0%
33.0%*
lg avg 22.0% +11.0%vs his norm —
88 / 60 PA
Walk %4.5%
4.5%*
lg avg 8.5% −4.0%vs his norm —Walk % is below the ~8.5% league averageexpect it to rise.
88 / 120 PA
BABIP.267
.267*
lg avg .295 −.028vs his norm —BABIP is below the ~.295 league averageexpect it to rise.
52 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %19.5%
19.5%*
lg avg 11.0% +8.5%vs his norm —
88 / 50 PA
Chase %40.2%
40.2%*
lg avg 28.5% +11.7%vs his norm —
88 / 50 PA

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
Barrel% 13.5%→12.4%noise1 HR — Barrel% 13.5% (noise) tempered to league ~8.0% → projected 12.4%.
BABIP 0.267→0.232 regressednoise.174 AVG — BABIP 0.267 is noise, regressed toward xBA-implied 0.230 (xBA 0.214) → 0.232.
on-base + lineup7 R — his run rate over ~38 projected PA.
slugging + lineup10 RBI — his RBI rate over ~38 projected PA.
run rate / role0 SB — his steal rate (0 in 5 G) over ~38 projected PA.
rosterdroprotational counting only

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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