108 PA · week 31
this weekHOLD
last weekHOLD
Joshua Báez
data as of October 26, 2026·week 31
Hold · wait & see strikeout rate 31% is stable and high, caps the floor — skill near league average (0.303); hold and wait — key skill metric not yet stable enough to call.med 0.50 (narrative held for review)
ROSHR 0AVG .000R 0RBI 0SB 0
Báez is a hold — real power, but the strikeouts cap the floor
ROS projects HR 3 YTD → 0 ROS, AVG .143 YTD → .000 ROS. Stable, rosterable; no clear edge to exploit either way.
Drivers
- xwobaNOISEskill near league average (0.303)
- k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 31% is stable and high — caps the floor
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Avg Exit Velo92.1 mph
lg avg 89.0 mph ▲+3.1 mphvs his norm —
68 / 50 BBE
Hard-Hit %47.1%
lg avg 40.0% ▲+7.1%vs his norm —
68 / 50 BBE
Barrel %11.8%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+3.8%vs his norm —
68 / 60 BBE
xwOBA.303
lg avg .315 ▼−.012vs his norm —xwOBA is below the ~.315 league average — expect it to rise.
108 / 160 PA
wOBA.335
lg avg .315 ▲+.020vs his norm —wOBA is above the ~.315 league average — expect it to fall.
108 / 200 PA
Strikeout %30.6%
lg avg 22.0% ▲+8.6%vs his norm —
108 / 60 PA
Walk %3.7%
lg avg 8.5% ▼−4.8%vs his norm —Walk % is below the ~8.5% league average — expect it to rise.
108 / 120 PA
BABIP.262
lg avg .295 ▼−.033vs his norm —BABIP is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
68 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %19.4%
lg avg 11.0% ▲+8.4%vs his norm —
108 / 50 PA
Chase %39.6%
lg avg 28.5% ▲+11.1%vs his norm —
108 / 50 PA
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
Barrel% 11.8%→11.0%signal0 HR — Barrel% 11.8% (signal) tempered to league ~8.0% → projected 11.0%.
BABIP 0.262→0.233 regressednoise.000 AVG — BABIP 0.262 is noise, regressed toward xBA-implied 0.230 (xBA 0.212) → 0.233.
on-base + lineup0 R — his run rate over ~0 projected PA.
slugging + lineup0 RBI — his RBI rate over ~0 projected PA.
run rate / role0 SB — his steal rate (0 in 5 G) over ~0 projected PA.
rosterdroprotational counting only
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.