91 PA · week 27
this weekHOLD
last week—
Kahlil Watson
data as of September 30, 2026·week 27
Hold · wait & see strikeout rate 35% is stable and high, caps the floor — skill near league average (0.246); BABIP 0.364 sits above league and is not yet stable, expect some of the average to regress; hold and wait — key skill metric not yet stable enough to call.med 0.50 (narrative held for review)
ROSAVG .000HR 0R 0RBI 0SB 0
Watson is a hold — the strikeouts cap what the bat can do.
ROS projects AVG .000 YTD → .000 ROS. Stable, rosterable; no clear edge to exploit either way.
Drivers
- xwobaNOISEskill near league average (0.246)
- k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 35% is stable and high — caps the floor
- babipNOISEBABIP 0.364 sits above league and is not yet stable — expect some of the average to regress
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Avg Exit Velo89.3 mph
lg avg 89.0 mph ▲+0.3 mphvs his norm —
56 / 50 BBE
Hard-Hit %32.1%
lg avg 40.0% ▼−7.9%vs his norm —
56 / 50 BBE
Barrel %7.1%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−0.9%vs his norm —Barrel % is below the ~8.0% league average — expect it to rise.
56 / 60 BBE
xwOBA.246
lg avg .315 ▼−.069vs his norm —xwOBA is below the ~.315 league average — expect it to rise.
91 / 160 PA
wOBA.266
lg avg .315 ▼−.049vs his norm —wOBA is below the ~.315 league average — expect it to rise.
91 / 200 PA
Strikeout %35.2%
lg avg 22.0% ▲+13.2%vs his norm —
91 / 60 PA
Walk %3.3%
lg avg 8.5% ▼−5.2%vs his norm —Walk % is below the ~8.5% league average — expect it to rise.
91 / 120 PA
BABIP.364
lg avg .295 ▲+.069vs his norm —BABIP is above the ~.295 league average — expect it to fall.
56 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %19.2%
lg avg 11.0% ▲+8.2%vs his norm —
91 / 50 PA
Chase %35.3%
lg avg 28.5% ▲+6.8%vs his norm —
91 / 50 PA
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
Barrel% 7.1%→7.3%noise0 HR — Barrel% 7.1% (noise) lifted to league ~8.0% → projected 7.3%.
BABIP 0.364→0.379 regressednoise.000 AVG — BABIP 0.364 is noise, regressed toward xBA-implied 0.380 (xBA 0.209) → 0.379.
on-base + lineup0 R — his run rate over ~0 projected PA.
slugging + lineup0 RBI — his RBI rate over ~0 projected PA.
run rate / role0 SB — his steal rate (0 in 2 G) over ~0 projected PA.
rosterdroprotational counting only
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.