MLB Daily DeltaWeek 17 · July 18, 2026
Engraved portrait of Ketel Marte
405 PA · week 17
this weekBUY-LOW
last weekBUY

Ketel Marte

AZ·2B
data as of July 18, 2026·week 17
flipped from BUY on July 18, 2026
Buy Low contact quality already past its threshold and intact, the bat is fine — BABIP 0.261 suppressed and unstable, dragging results below the bat; buy the player, not the number.med 0.66
ROSHR 6AVG .265R 28RBI 28SB 0

Marte is a buy-low — BABIP slump hides elite contact.

Ketel Marte's actual wOBA sits at .332 — just above league average — but that number is being held down by a .261 BABIP, .034 below league average. BABIP needs around 800 balls in play to be reliable; he has 316, so that gap is luck, not a decline. Meanwhile, his contact quality has been stepping up across the sample: a hard-hit rate of 44.9% against a league average of 40.0%, exit velocity at 91.0 mph (89.0 league), and a barrel rate of 10.8% (8.0 league) — all past their stabilization thresholds. His expected wOBA is .364, well above his actual line and league average. He also strikes out only 14.3% of the time, so there is no whiff-related floor to worry about. The bat is real and the bounces are not. Buy low. 6 HR / 28 R / 28 RBI / 0 SB / .265 AVG makes him a deep-league buy-low asset with skill metrics backing a rebound.

VS His Norm

  • Barrel %10.8%—−0.3% ▼vs his ~11.1% career norm

Drivers

  • babipNOISEBABIP 0.261 suppressed and unstable — dragging results below the bat
  • hard_hit_pctSIGNALcontact quality already past its threshold and intact — the bat is fine
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Avg Exit Velo91.0 mph
91.0 mph*
lg avg 89.0 mph ▲+2.0 mphvs his norm —
316 / 50 BBE
Hard-Hit %44.9%
44.9%*
lg avg 40.0% ▲+4.9%vs his norm —
316 / 50 BBE
Barrel %10.8%
norm10.8%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+2.8%vs his norm −0.3% ▼
316 / 60 BBE
xwOBA.364
.364*
lg avg .315 ▲+.049vs his norm —
405 / 160 PA
wOBA.332
.332*
lg avg .315 ▲+.017vs his norm —
405 / 200 PA
Strikeout %14.3%
14.3%*
lg avg 22.0% ▼−7.7%vs his norm —
405 / 60 PA
Walk %7.2%
7.2%*
lg avg 8.5% ▼−1.3%vs his norm —
405 / 120 PA
BABIP.261
norm.261*
lg avg .295 ▼−.034vs his norm −.036 ▼BABIP is below his ~.297 norm — expect it to rise.
316 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %10.0%
10.0%*
lg avg 11.0% ▼−1.0%vs his norm —
405 / 50 PA
Chase %32.2%
32.2%*
lg avg 28.5% ▲+3.7%vs his norm —
405 / 50 PA

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
Barrel% 10.8%→10.9%signal6 HR — Barrel% 10.8% (signal) lifted to career ~11.1% → projected 10.9%.
BABIP 0.261→0.289 regressednoise.265 AVG — BABIP 0.261 is noise, regressed toward xBA-implied 0.307 (xBA 0.293) → 0.289.
on-base + lineup28 R — his run rate over ~198 projected PA.
slugging + lineup28 RBI — his RBI rate over ~198 projected PA.
run rate / role0 SB — his steal rate (0 in 56 G) over ~198 projected PA.
rosterdeeprotational counting only

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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