102 PA · week 31
this weekHOLD
last weekHOLD
Leo Bernal
data as of October 26, 2026·week 31
Hold · wait & see skill near league average (0.347); BABIP 0.338 sits above league and is not yet stable, expect some of the average to regress; hold and wait — key skill metric not yet stable enough to call.med 0.50 (narrative held for review)
ROSHR 0AVG .000R 0RBI 0SB 0
Bernal is a hold — the contact is real, the average is not settled.
ROS projects HR 1 YTD → 0 ROS, AVG .250 YTD → .000 ROS. Stable, rosterable; no clear edge to exploit either way.
Drivers
- xwobaNOISEskill near league average (0.347)
- babipNOISEBABIP 0.338 sits above league and is not yet stable — expect some of the average to regress
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Avg Exit Velo92.6 mph
lg avg 89.0 mph ▲+3.6 mphvs his norm —
70 / 50 BBE
Hard-Hit %55.7%
lg avg 40.0% ▲+15.7%vs his norm —
70 / 50 BBE
Barrel %10.0%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+2.0%vs his norm —
70 / 60 BBE
xwOBA.347
lg avg .315 ▲+.032vs his norm —xwOBA is above the ~.315 league average — expect it to fall.
102 / 160 PA
wOBA.351
lg avg .315 ▲+.036vs his norm —wOBA is above the ~.315 league average — expect it to fall.
102 / 200 PA
Strikeout %24.5%
lg avg 22.0% ▲+2.5%vs his norm —
102 / 60 PA
Walk %6.9%
lg avg 8.5% ▼−1.6%vs his norm —Walk % is below the ~8.5% league average — expect it to rise.
102 / 120 PA
BABIP.338
lg avg .295 ▲+.043vs his norm —BABIP is above the ~.295 league average — expect it to fall.
70 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %12.2%
lg avg 11.0% ▲+1.2%vs his norm —
102 / 50 PA
Chase %29.2%
lg avg 28.5% ▲+0.7%vs his norm —
102 / 50 PA
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
Barrel% 10.0%→9.6%signal0 HR — Barrel% 10.0% (signal) tempered to league ~8.0% → projected 9.6%.
BABIP 0.338→0.241 regressednoise.000 AVG — BABIP 0.338 is noise, regressed toward xBA-implied 0.232 (xBA 0.270) → 0.241.
on-base + lineup0 R — his run rate over ~0 projected PA.
slugging + lineup0 RBI — his RBI rate over ~0 projected PA.
run rate / role0 SB — his steal rate (0 in 2 G) over ~0 projected PA.
rosterdroprotational counting only
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.