143 PA · week 27
this weekHOLD
last week—
Leo Rivas
data as of September 27, 2026·week 27
Hold · wait & see strikeout rate 28% is stable and high, caps the floor — skill near league average (0.250); hold and wait — key skill metric not yet stable enough to call.med 0.50 (narrative held for review)
ROSHR 0AVG .000R 0RBI 0SB 0
Rivas is a hold — the profile is muddled, not moving.
ROS projects HR 0 YTD → 0 ROS, AVG .131 YTD → .000 ROS. Stable, rosterable; no clear edge to exploit either way.
VS His Norm
- Barrel %1.2%—−1.4% ▼vs his ~2.6% career norm
Drivers
- xwobaNOISEskill near league average (0.250)
- k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 28% is stable and high — caps the floor
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Avg Exit Velo86.3 mph
lg avg 89.0 mph ▼−2.7 mphvs his norm —
83 / 50 BBE
Hard-Hit %15.7%
lg avg 40.0% ▼−24.3%vs his norm —
83 / 50 BBE
Barrel %1.2%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−6.8%vs his norm −1.4% ▼
83 / 60 BBE
xwOBA.250
lg avg .315 ▼−.065vs his norm —xwOBA is below the ~.315 league average — expect it to rise.
143 / 160 PA
wOBA.226
lg avg .315 ▼−.089vs his norm —wOBA is below the ~.315 league average — expect it to rise.
143 / 200 PA
Strikeout %28.0%
lg avg 22.0% ▲+6.0%vs his norm —
143 / 60 PA
Walk %11.2%
lg avg 8.5% ▲+2.7%vs his norm —
143 / 120 PA
BABIP.222
lg avg .295 ▼−.073vs his norm −.105 ▼BABIP is below his ~.327 norm — expect it to rise.
83 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %8.5%
lg avg 11.0% ▼−2.5%vs his norm —
143 / 50 PA
Chase %16.2%
lg avg 28.5% ▼−12.3%vs his norm —
143 / 50 PA
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
Barrel% 1.2%→2.2%signal0 HR — Barrel% 1.2% (signal) lifted to career ~2.6% → projected 2.2%.
BABIP 0.222→0.247 regressednoise.000 AVG — BABIP 0.222 is noise, regressed toward xBA-implied 0.250 (xBA 0.175) → 0.247.
on-base + lineup0 R — his run rate over ~0 projected PA.
slugging + lineup0 RBI — his RBI rate over ~0 projected PA.
run rate / role0 SB — his steal rate (2 in 38 G) over ~0 projected PA.
rosterdroprotational counting only
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.