120 PA · week 19
this weekHOLD
last week—
Leo Rivas
data as of August 1, 2026·week 19
Hold · wait & see strikeout rate 30% is stable and high, caps the floor — skill near league average (0.238); hold and wait — key skill metric not yet stable enough to call.med 0.50 (narrative held for review)
ROSHR 0AVG .148R 9RBI 7SB 2
Rivas is a hold — the bat is below league and not improving.
ROS projects HR 0 YTD → 0 ROS, AVG .131 YTD → .148 ROS. Stable, rosterable; no clear edge to exploit either way.
VS His Norm
- Barrel %1.5%—−1.1% ▼vs his ~2.6% career norm
Drivers
- xwobaNOISEskill near league average (0.238)
- k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 30% is stable and high — caps the floor
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Avg Exit Velo86.2 mph
lg avg 89.0 mph ▼−2.8 mphvs his norm —
66 / 50 BBE
Hard-Hit %13.6%
lg avg 40.0% ▼−26.4%vs his norm —
66 / 50 BBE
Barrel %1.5%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−6.5%vs his norm −1.1% ▼
66 / 60 BBE
xwOBA.238
lg avg .315 ▼−.077vs his norm —xwOBA is below the ~.315 league average — expect it to rise.
120 / 160 PA
wOBA.217
lg avg .315 ▼−.098vs his norm —wOBA is below the ~.315 league average — expect it to rise.
120 / 200 PA
Strikeout %30.0%
lg avg 22.0% ▲+8.0%vs his norm —
120 / 60 PA
Walk %12.5%
lg avg 8.5% ▲+4.0%vs his norm —
120 / 120 PA
BABIP.203
lg avg .295 ▼−.092vs his norm −.124 ▼BABIP is below his ~.327 norm — expect it to rise.
66 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %8.8%
lg avg 11.0% ▼−2.2%vs his norm —
120 / 50 PA
Chase %17.7%
lg avg 28.5% ▼−10.8%vs his norm —
120 / 50 PA
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
Barrel% 1.5%→2.3%signal0 HR — Barrel% 1.5% (signal) lifted to career ~2.6% → projected 2.3%.
BABIP 0.203→0.228 regressednoise.148 AVG — BABIP 0.203 is noise, regressed toward xBA-implied 0.230 (xBA 0.150) → 0.228.
on-base + lineup9 R — his run rate over ~124 projected PA.
slugging + lineup7 RBI — his RBI rate over ~124 projected PA.
run rate / role2 SB — his steal rate (2 in 38 G) over ~124 projected PA.
rosterdroprotational counting only
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.