MLB Daily DeltaWeek 25 · September 10, 2026
Engraved portrait of Maikel Garcia
309 PA · week 25
this weekHOLD
last weekHOLD

Maikel Garcia

data as of September 10, 2026·week 25
ON THE 10-DAY IL
Hold · steady skill near league average (0.317); hold steady — skill tracks near league, no edge either way.med 0.60
ROSAVG .269HR 0R 5RBI 4SB 1

Garcia is a hold — league-average bat, real contact skill, no luck to chase.

His expected wOBA is .317, a tick above the .315 league average, and he has the plate appearances for that number to be reliable. His actual wOBA of .313 tracks it almost exactly, so there is no luck story inflating his line and no bad-luck story dragging it down. His walks and strikeouts are both close to league average, and his chase rate of 23.0% is better than most — he controls the strike zone. He is not a power bat: his barrel rate of 4.6% sits well under the league's 8.0%. The one thing moving in his favor is trajectory — his expected wOBA has stepped up across the sample, and 40.8% hard contact on 238 batted balls backs that up. Nothing here says buy or sell. Hold. Just 0 HR / 5 R / 4 RBI / 1 SB / .269 AVG rest of way — a deep-league hold, not a difference-maker.

VS His Norm

  • Barrel %4.6%+0.1%vs his ~4.5% career norm

Drivers

  • xwobaSIGNALskill near league average (0.317)
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Avg Exit Velo89.8 mph
89.8 mph*
lg avg 89.0 mph +0.8 mphvs his norm —
238 / 50 BBE
Hard-Hit %40.8%
40.8%*
lg avg 40.0% +0.8%vs his norm —
238 / 50 BBE
Barrel %4.6%
norm4.6%*
lg avg 8.0% −3.4%vs his norm +0.1%
238 / 60 BBE
xwOBA.317
.317*
lg avg .315 +.002vs his norm —
309 / 160 PA
wOBA.313
.313*
lg avg .315 −.002vs his norm —
309 / 200 PA
Strikeout %15.2%
15.2%*
lg avg 22.0% −6.8%vs his norm —
309 / 60 PA
Walk %7.8%
7.8%*
lg avg 8.5% −0.7%vs his norm —
309 / 120 PA
BABIP.311
norm.311*
lg avg .295 +.016vs his norm +.008 BABIP is above his ~.303 normexpect it to fall.
238 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %5.4%
5.4%*
lg avg 11.0% −5.6%vs his norm —
309 / 50 PA
Chase %23.0%
23.0%*
lg avg 28.5% −5.5%vs his norm —
309 / 50 PA

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
Barrel% 4.6%→4.5%signal0 HR — Barrel% 4.6% (signal) tempered to career ~4.5% → projected 4.5%.
BABIP 0.311→0.311 regressednoise.269 AVG — BABIP 0.311 is noise, regressed toward xBA-implied 0.311 (xBA 0.276) → 0.311.
on-base + lineup5 R — his run rate over ~44 projected PA.
slugging + lineup4 RBI — his RBI rate over ~44 projected PA.
run rate / role1 SB — his steal rate (4 in 56 G) over ~44 projected PA.
rosterdeeprotational counting only

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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