MLB Daily DeltaWeek 17 · July 18, 2026
Engraved portrait of Maikel Garcia
294 PA · week 17
this weekHOLD
last weekHOLD

Maikel Garcia

KC·3B
data as of July 18, 2026·week 17
ON THE 10-DAY IL
Hold · steady skill near league average (0.316); hold steady — skill tracks near league, no edge either way.med 0.60
ROSAVG .267HR 2R 22RBI 17SB 3

Garcia is a hold — league average, no edge either way.

His expected wOBA sits at .316, essentially at the league average of .315, and his plate appearance count of 294 is well past the 160 needed for the number to stick. His actual wOBA is .307, close enough to the expected number to rule out a luck story. His contact quality metrics — exit velocity, hard-hit rate, and barrel rate — are all near or slightly below league average, with nothing trending strongly enough to suggest a breakout. His xwOBA has been stepping up across the sample, but it is still within the league-average band. There is no unstable stat pulling the line in either direction, which leaves no edge for a buy or a sell. If you own him, the level is what it is. Hold. 2 HR, 22 R, 17 RBI, 3 SB, .267 AVG is a deep-league hold; no edge to cut.

VS His Norm

  • Barrel %4.9%—+0.4% ▲vs his ~4.5% career norm

Drivers

  • xwobaSIGNALskill near league average (0.316)
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Avg Exit Velo90.1 mph
90.1 mph*
lg avg 89.0 mph ▲+1.1 mphvs his norm —
225 / 50 BBE
Hard-Hit %41.3%
41.3%*
lg avg 40.0% ▲+1.3%vs his norm —
225 / 50 BBE
Barrel %4.9%
norm4.9%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−3.1%vs his norm +0.4% ▲
225 / 60 BBE
xwOBA.316
.316*
lg avg .315 ▲+.001vs his norm —
294 / 160 PA
wOBA.307
.307*
lg avg .315 ▼−.008vs his norm —
294 / 200 PA
Strikeout %15.3%
15.3%*
lg avg 22.0% ▼−6.7%vs his norm —
294 / 60 PA
Walk %8.2%
8.2%*
lg avg 8.5% ▼−0.3%vs his norm —
294 / 120 PA
BABIP.302
norm.302*
lg avg .295 ▲+.007vs his norm −.001 ▼BABIP is below his ~.303 norm — expect it to rise.
225 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %5.6%
5.6%*
lg avg 11.0% ▼−5.4%vs his norm —
294 / 50 PA
Chase %22.7%
22.7%*
lg avg 28.5% ▼−5.8%vs his norm —
294 / 50 PA

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
Barrel% 4.9%→4.7%signal2 HR — Barrel% 4.9% (signal) tempered to career ~4.5% → projected 4.7%.
BABIP 0.302→0.305 regressednoise.267 AVG — BABIP 0.302 is noise, regressed toward xBA-implied 0.306 (xBA 0.272) → 0.305.
on-base + lineup22 R — his run rate over ~198 projected PA.
slugging + lineup17 RBI — his RBI rate over ~198 projected PA.
run rate / role3 SB — his steal rate (4 in 56 G) over ~198 projected PA.
rosterdeeprotational counting only

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

Tweet
Compare with

Comparisons

head-to-head matchups