MLB Daily DeltaWeek 27 · September 27, 2026
199 PA · week 27
this weekSELL
last week—

Matt Shaw

data as of September 27, 2026·week 27
Sell stable xwOBA 0.300 below league with no luck excuse; move on.med 0.58 (narrative held for review)
ROSAVG .000HR 0R 0RBI 0SB 0

Shaw is a sell — below-league skill with no luck to blame.

Stable skill below league and not unlucky. Sell.

VS His Norm

  • Barrel %4.3%—−2.6% ▼vs his ~6.9% career norm

Drivers

  • xwobaSIGNALstable xwOBA 0.300 below league with no luck excuse
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Avg Exit Velo86.9 mph
86.9 mph*
lg avg 89.0 mph ▼−2.1 mphvs his norm —
141 / 50 BBE
Hard-Hit %34.8%
34.8%*
lg avg 40.0% ▼−5.2%vs his norm —
141 / 50 BBE
Barrel %4.3%
norm4.3%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−3.7%vs his norm −2.6% ▼
141 / 60 BBE
xwOBA.300
.300*
lg avg .315 ▼−.015vs his norm —
199 / 160 PA
wOBA.326
.326*
lg avg .315 ▲+.011vs his norm —wOBA is above the ~.315 league average — expect it to fall.
199 / 200 PA
Strikeout %17.6%
17.6%*
lg avg 22.0% ▼−4.4%vs his norm —
199 / 60 PA
Walk %10.1%
10.1%*
lg avg 8.5% ▲+1.6%vs his norm —
199 / 120 PA
BABIP.271
norm.271*
lg avg .295 ▼−.024vs his norm +.009 ▲BABIP is above his ~.262 norm — expect it to fall.
141 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %9.2%
9.2%*
lg avg 11.0% ▼−1.8%vs his norm —
199 / 50 PA
Chase %32.6%
32.6%*
lg avg 28.5% ▲+4.1%vs his norm —
199 / 50 PA

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
Barrel% 4.3%→5.8%signal0 HR — Barrel% 4.3% (signal) lifted to career ~6.9% → projected 5.8%.
BABIP 0.271→0.251 regressednoise.000 AVG — BABIP 0.271 is noise, regressed toward xBA-implied 0.247 (xBA 0.228) → 0.251.
on-base + lineup0 R — his run rate over ~0 projected PA.
slugging + lineup0 RBI — his RBI rate over ~0 projected PA.
run rate / role0 SB — his steal rate (3 in 43 G) over ~0 projected PA.
rosterdroprotational counting only

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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