147 PA · week 18
this weekHOLD
last weekHOLD
Matt Shaw
data as of July 28, 2026·week 18
ON THE 10-DAY IL
Hold · wait & see skill near league average (0.301); hold and wait — key skill metric not yet stable enough to call.med 0.50 (narrative held for review)
ROSHR 2AVG .228R 12RBI 14SB 3
Shaw is a hold — league average, stable, no edge.
ROS projects HR 3 YTD → 2 ROS, AVG .240 YTD → .228 ROS. Stable, rosterable; no clear edge to exploit either way.
VS His Norm
- Barrel %4.8%—−2.1% ▼vs his ~6.9% career norm
Drivers
- xwobaNOISEskill near league average (0.301)
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Avg Exit Velo86.8 mph
lg avg 89.0 mph ▼−2.2 mphvs his norm —
105 / 50 BBE
Hard-Hit %36.2%
lg avg 40.0% ▼−3.8%vs his norm —
105 / 50 BBE
Barrel %4.8%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−3.2%vs his norm −2.1% ▼
105 / 60 BBE
xwOBA.301
lg avg .315 ▼−.014vs his norm —xwOBA is below the ~.315 league average — expect it to rise.
147 / 160 PA
wOBA.324
lg avg .315 ▲+.009vs his norm —wOBA is above the ~.315 league average — expect it to fall.
147 / 200 PA
Strikeout %18.4%
lg avg 22.0% ▼−3.6%vs his norm —
147 / 60 PA
Walk %8.2%
lg avg 8.5% ▼−0.3%vs his norm —
147 / 120 PA
BABIP.280
lg avg .295 ▼−.015vs his norm +.018 ▲BABIP is above his ~.262 norm — expect it to fall.
105 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %9.3%
lg avg 11.0% ▼−1.7%vs his norm —
147 / 50 PA
Chase %35.6%
lg avg 28.5% ▲+7.1%vs his norm —
147 / 50 PA
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
Barrel% 4.8%→6.2%signal2 HR — Barrel% 4.8% (signal) lifted to career ~6.9% → projected 6.2%.
BABIP 0.280→0.265 regressednoise.228 AVG — BABIP 0.280 is noise, regressed toward xBA-implied 0.263 (xBA 0.241) → 0.265.
on-base + lineup12 R — his run rate over ~122 projected PA.
slugging + lineup14 RBI — his RBI rate over ~122 projected PA.
run rate / role3 SB — his steal rate (3 in 43 G) over ~122 projected PA.
rosterdroprotational counting only
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.