619 PA · week 31
this weekHOLD
last weekSELL
Mauricio Dubón
data as of October 26, 2026·week 31
flipped from SELL on October 26, 2026
Hold · leans sell skill near league average (0.304); a hold that leans sell — skill sits a hair below league, nothing to chase.med 0.60 (narrative held for review)
ROSAVG .000HR 0R 0RBI 0SB 0
Dubón is a hold — league-average skill with no edge either way.
ROS projects HR 3 YTD → 0 ROS, AVG .250 YTD → .000 ROS. Stable, rosterable; no clear edge to exploit either way.
VS His Norm
- Barrel %4.0%—+1.1% ▲vs his ~2.9% career norm
Drivers
- xwobaSIGNALskill near league average (0.304)
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Avg Exit Velo86.5 mph
lg avg 89.0 mph ▼−2.5 mphvs his norm —
504 / 50 BBE
Hard-Hit %29.4%
lg avg 40.0% ▼−10.6%vs his norm —
504 / 50 BBE
Barrel %4.0%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−4.0%vs his norm +1.1% ▲
504 / 60 BBE
xwOBA.304
lg avg .315 ▼−.011vs his norm —
619 / 160 PA
wOBA.317
lg avg .315 ▲+.002vs his norm —
619 / 200 PA
Strikeout %11.8%
lg avg 22.0% ▼−10.2%vs his norm —
619 / 60 PA
Walk %5.7%
lg avg 8.5% ▼−2.8%vs his norm —
619 / 120 PA
BABIP.298
lg avg .295 ▲+.003vs his norm +.009 ▲BABIP is above his ~.289 norm — expect it to fall.
504 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %8.2%
lg avg 11.0% ▼−2.8%vs his norm —
619 / 50 PA
Chase %37.6%
lg avg 28.5% ▲+9.1%vs his norm —
619 / 50 PA
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
Barrel% 4.0%→3.7%signal0 HR — Barrel% 4.0% (signal) tempered to career ~2.9% → projected 3.7%.
BABIP 0.298→0.301 regressednoise.000 AVG — BABIP 0.298 is noise, regressed toward xBA-implied 0.307 (xBA 0.268) → 0.301.
on-base + lineup0 R — his run rate over ~0 projected PA.
slugging + lineup0 RBI — his RBI rate over ~0 projected PA.
run rate / role0 SB — his steal rate (0 in 56 G) over ~0 projected PA.
rosterdroprotational counting only
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.