
372 PA · week 17
this weekHOLD
last weekSELL
Mauricio Dubón
data as of July 18, 2026·week 17
flipped from SELL on July 18, 2026
Hold · steady skill near league average (0.316); hold steady — skill tracks near league, no edge either way.med 0.60 (narrative held for review)
ROSAVG .258HR 2R 19RBI 24SB 0
Dubón is a hold — league average, nothing special.
ROS projects HR 3 YTD → 2 ROS, AVG .250 YTD → .258 ROS. Stable, rosterable; no clear edge to exploit either way.
VS His Norm
- Barrel %4.8%—+1.9% ▲vs his ~2.9% career norm
Drivers
- xwobaSIGNALskill near league average (0.316)
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Avg Exit Velo86.3 mph
lg avg 89.0 mph ▼−2.7 mphvs his norm —
291 / 50 BBE
Hard-Hit %30.9%
lg avg 40.0% ▼−9.1%vs his norm —
291 / 50 BBE
Barrel %4.8%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−3.2%vs his norm +1.9% ▲
291 / 60 BBE
xwOBA.316
lg avg .315 ▲+.001vs his norm —
372 / 160 PA
wOBA.324
lg avg .315 ▲+.009vs his norm —
372 / 200 PA
Strikeout %14.2%
lg avg 22.0% ▼−7.8%vs his norm —
372 / 60 PA
Walk %6.7%
lg avg 8.5% ▼−1.8%vs his norm —
372 / 120 PA
BABIP.289
lg avg .295 ▼−.006vs his norm .000 BABIP is below his ~.289 norm — expect it to rise.
291 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %8.5%
lg avg 11.0% ▼−2.5%vs his norm —
372 / 50 PA
Chase %37.4%
lg avg 28.5% ▲+8.9%vs his norm —
372 / 50 PA
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
Barrel% 4.8%→4.0%signal2 HR — Barrel% 4.8% (signal) tempered to career ~2.9% → projected 4.0%.
BABIP 0.289→0.302 regressednoise.258 AVG — BABIP 0.289 is noise, regressed toward xBA-implied 0.310 (xBA 0.270) → 0.302.
on-base + lineup19 R — his run rate over ~189 projected PA.
slugging + lineup24 RBI — his RBI rate over ~189 projected PA.
run rate / role0 SB — his steal rate (0 in 56 G) over ~189 projected PA.
rosterdroprotational counting only
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.