MLB Daily DeltaWeek 17 · July 18, 2026
Engraved portrait of Mauricio Dubón
372 PA · week 17
this weekHOLD
last weekSELL

Mauricio Dubón

data as of July 18, 2026·week 17
flipped from SELL on July 18, 2026
Hold · steady skill near league average (0.316); hold steady — skill tracks near league, no edge either way.med 0.60 (narrative held for review)
ROSAVG .258HR 2R 19RBI 24SB 0

Dubón is a hold — league average, nothing special.

ROS projects HR 3 YTD → 2 ROS, AVG .250 YTD → .258 ROS. Stable, rosterable; no clear edge to exploit either way.

VS His Norm

  • Barrel %4.8%+1.9%vs his ~2.9% career norm

Drivers

  • xwobaSIGNALskill near league average (0.316)
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Avg Exit Velo86.3 mph
86.3 mph*
lg avg 89.0 mph −2.7 mphvs his norm —
291 / 50 BBE
Hard-Hit %30.9%
30.9%*
lg avg 40.0% −9.1%vs his norm —
291 / 50 BBE
Barrel %4.8%
norm4.8%*
lg avg 8.0% −3.2%vs his norm +1.9%
291 / 60 BBE
xwOBA.316
.316*
lg avg .315 +.001vs his norm —
372 / 160 PA
wOBA.324
.324*
lg avg .315 +.009vs his norm —
372 / 200 PA
Strikeout %14.2%
14.2%*
lg avg 22.0% −7.8%vs his norm —
372 / 60 PA
Walk %6.7%
6.7%*
lg avg 8.5% −1.8%vs his norm —
372 / 120 PA
BABIP.289
norm.289*
lg avg .295 −.006vs his norm .000 BABIP is below his ~.289 normexpect it to rise.
291 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %8.5%
8.5%*
lg avg 11.0% −2.5%vs his norm —
372 / 50 PA
Chase %37.4%
37.4%*
lg avg 28.5% +8.9%vs his norm —
372 / 50 PA

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
Barrel% 4.8%→4.0%signal2 HR — Barrel% 4.8% (signal) tempered to career ~2.9% → projected 4.0%.
BABIP 0.289→0.302 regressednoise.258 AVG — BABIP 0.289 is noise, regressed toward xBA-implied 0.310 (xBA 0.270) → 0.302.
on-base + lineup19 R — his run rate over ~189 projected PA.
slugging + lineup24 RBI — his RBI rate over ~189 projected PA.
run rate / role0 SB — his steal rate (0 in 56 G) over ~189 projected PA.
rosterdroprotational counting only

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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