130 PA · week 17
this weekHOLD
last weekHOLD
Mitch Garver
data as of July 18, 2026·week 17
Hold · wait & see strikeout rate 32% is stable and high, caps the floor — skill near league average (0.308); hold and wait — key skill metric not yet stable enough to call.med 0.50 (narrative held for review)
ROSHR 3AVG .187R 20RBI 10SB 0
Garver is a hold — league average, high K caps the floor.
ROS projects HR 2 YTD → 3 ROS, AVG .187 YTD → .187 ROS. Stable, rosterable; no clear edge to exploit either way.
VS His Norm
- Barrel %7.4%—−2.3% ▼vs his ~9.7% career norm
Drivers
- xwobaNOISEskill near league average (0.308)
- k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 32% is stable and high — caps the floor
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Avg Exit Velo90.2 mph
lg avg 89.0 mph ▲+1.2 mphvs his norm —
68 / 50 BBE
Hard-Hit %48.5%
lg avg 40.0% ▲+8.5%vs his norm —
68 / 50 BBE
Barrel %7.4%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−0.6%vs his norm −2.3% ▼
68 / 60 BBE
xwOBA.308
lg avg .315 ▼−.007vs his norm —xwOBA is below the ~.315 league average — expect it to rise.
130 / 160 PA
wOBA.291
lg avg .315 ▼−.024vs his norm —wOBA is below the ~.315 league average — expect it to rise.
130 / 200 PA
Strikeout %31.5%
lg avg 22.0% ▲+9.5%vs his norm —
130 / 60 PA
Walk %15.4%
lg avg 8.5% ▲+6.9%vs his norm —
130 / 120 PA
BABIP.250
lg avg .295 ▼−.045vs his norm −.011 ▼BABIP is below his ~.262 norm — expect it to rise.
68 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %14.3%
lg avg 11.0% ▲+3.3%vs his norm —
130 / 50 PA
Chase %23.8%
lg avg 28.5% ▼−4.7%vs his norm —
130 / 50 PA
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
Barrel% 7.4%→9.1%signal3 HR — Barrel% 7.4% (signal) lifted to career ~9.7% → projected 9.1%.
BABIP 0.250→0.260 regressednoise.187 AVG — BABIP 0.250 is noise, regressed toward xBA-implied 0.261 (xBA 0.203) → 0.260.
on-base + lineup20 R — his run rate over ~148 projected PA.
slugging + lineup10 RBI — his RBI rate over ~148 projected PA.
run rate / role0 SB — his steal rate (0 in 30 G) over ~148 projected PA.
rosterdroprotational counting only
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.