115 PA · week 27
this weekHOLD
last weekHOLD
Pavin Smith
data as of September 27, 2026·week 27
Hold · wait & see skill near league average (0.284); hold and wait — key skill metric not yet stable enough to call.med 0.50 (narrative held for review)
ROSHR 0AVG .000R 0RBI 0SB 0
Pavin Smith is a hold — average across the board, nothing unstable
ROS projects HR 0 YTD → 0 ROS, AVG .125 YTD → .000 ROS. Stable, rosterable; no clear edge to exploit either way.
VS His Norm
- Barrel %5.1%—−5.9% ▼vs his ~11.0% career norm
Drivers
- xwobaNOISEskill near league average (0.284)
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Avg Exit Velo88.1 mph
lg avg 89.0 mph ▼−0.9 mphvs his norm —
79 / 50 BBE
Hard-Hit %38.0%
lg avg 40.0% ▼−2.0%vs his norm —
79 / 50 BBE
Barrel %5.1%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−2.9%vs his norm −5.9% ▼
79 / 60 BBE
xwOBA.284
lg avg .315 ▼−.031vs his norm —xwOBA is below the ~.315 league average — expect it to rise.
115 / 160 PA
wOBA.260
lg avg .315 ▼−.055vs his norm —wOBA is below the ~.315 league average — expect it to rise.
115 / 200 PA
Strikeout %20.9%
lg avg 22.0% ▼−1.1%vs his norm —
115 / 60 PA
Walk %10.4%
lg avg 8.5% ▲+1.9%vs his norm —Walk % is above the ~8.5% league average — expect it to fall.
115 / 120 PA
BABIP.211
lg avg .295 ▼−.084vs his norm −.080 ▼BABIP is below his ~.291 norm — expect it to rise.
79 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %8.6%
lg avg 11.0% ▼−2.4%vs his norm —
115 / 50 PA
Chase %27.2%
lg avg 28.5% ▼−1.3%vs his norm —
115 / 50 PA
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
Barrel% 5.1%→9.3%signal0 HR — Barrel% 5.1% (signal) lifted to career ~11.0% → projected 9.3%.
BABIP 0.211→0.296 regressednoise.000 AVG — BABIP 0.211 is noise, regressed toward xBA-implied 0.306 (xBA 0.214) → 0.296.
on-base + lineup0 R — his run rate over ~0 projected PA.
slugging + lineup0 RBI — his RBI rate over ~0 projected PA.
run rate / role0 SB — his steal rate (0 in 3 G) over ~0 projected PA.
rosterdroprotational counting only
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.