Is Pete Crow-Armstrong a buy or sell for fantasy baseball?

Buy — stable, above-average metrics signal genuine skill. Good ROS add target.

What is Pete Crow-Armstrong's rest-of-season outlook?

48.9% hard-hit and 13.3% barrels back the xwOBA jump

659 PA · week 25

this weekBUY

last weekBUY

Pete Crow-Armstrong

CHC·CF

data as of September 11, 2026·week 25

Buy stable xwOBA 0.373, +0.058 vs league, production is earned; elite, already-stable contact quality — BABIP 0.331 sits above league and is not yet stable, expect some of the average to regress; add now.med 0.72

ROSHR 1AVG .249R 5RBI 4SB 2

Crow-Armstrong is a buy — the contact is real and climbing.

His hard-hit rate has stepped up across the sample and now sits at 48.9%, nearly nine points above the league average of 40%, on 399 batted balls — well past the 50 needed to trust it. That contact is the engine behind his .373 expected wOBA, .058 above league, and it too is stepping up. His actual wOBA is .402, so the production is earned, not propped up. His BABIP is .331 against a league average of .295, and BABIP needs around 800 balls in play to be reliable; he has 399. That gap is luck, so expect some of the batting average to give back even while the power holds. He does strike out 26.1% of the time, which will cost him in some weeks. The skill underneath is the story. Buy. Deep-league only: 1 HR / 5 R / 4 RBI / 2 SB / .249 AVG is a thin counting stream, but the buy is real — add where you have the room.

VS His Norm

Barrel %13.3%—+2.5% ▲vs his ~10.8% career norm

Drivers

xwobaSIGNALstable xwOBA 0.373, +0.058 vs league — production is earned
hard_hit_pctSIGNALelite, already-stable contact quality
babipNOISEBABIP 0.331 sits above league and is not yet stable — expect some of the average to regress

metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?

Avg Exit Velo90.5 mph

lg avg 89.0 mph ▲+1.5 mphvs his norm —

399 / 50 BBE

Hard-Hit %48.9%

lg avg 40.0% ▲+8.9%vs his norm —

399 / 50 BBE

Barrel %13.3%

lg avg 8.0% ▲+5.3%vs his norm +2.5% ▲

399 / 60 BBE

xwOBA.373

lg avg .315 ▲+.058vs his norm —

659 / 160 PA

wOBA.402

lg avg .315 ▲+.087vs his norm —

659 / 200 PA

Strikeout %26.1%

lg avg 22.0% ▲+4.1%vs his norm —

659 / 60 PA

Walk %11.5%

lg avg 8.5% ▲+3.0%vs his norm —

659 / 120 PA

BABIP.331

lg avg .295 ▲+.036vs his norm +.052 ▲BABIP is above his ~.279 norm — expect it to fall.

399 / 800 BIP

Swinging-Strike %13.2%

lg avg 11.0% ▲+2.2%vs his norm —

659 / 50 PA

Chase %33.9%

lg avg 28.5% ▲+5.4%vs his norm —

659 / 50 PA

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf

Barrel% 13.3%→12.5%signal1 HR — Barrel% 13.3% (signal) tempered to career ~10.8% → projected 12.5%.

BABIP 0.331→0.327 regressednoise.249 AVG — BABIP 0.331 is noise, regressed toward xBA-implied 0.323 (xBA 0.262) → 0.327.

on-base + lineup5 R — his run rate over ~41 projected PA.

slugging + lineup4 RBI — his RBI rate over ~41 projected PA.

run rate / role2 SB — his steal rate (12 in 60 G) over ~41 projected PA.

rosterdeeprotational counting only

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

VS His Norm

Drivers

5×5 ROS Outlook

Comparisons