418 PA · week 17
this weekSELL-HIGH
last weekBUY
Pete Crow-Armstrong
data as of July 18, 2026·week 17
flipped from BUY on July 18, 2026
Sell High luck-free skill 0.364 is 0.031 below the surface, regression coming — BABIP 0.359 far above league and nowhere near stable, inflating the line; sell into the hype before regression.med 0.73 (narrative held for review)
ROSHR 6AVG .257R 26RBI 20SB 9
Crow-Armstrong is a sell-high — BABIP is inflating his line.
Surface line inflated by an unsustainable BABIP; the stable skill is lower. Sell high.
VS His Norm
- Barrel %10.7%—−0.1% ▼vs his ~10.8% career norm
Drivers
- babipNOISEBABIP 0.359 far above league and nowhere near stable — inflating the line
- xwobaSIGNALluck-free skill 0.364 is 0.031 below the surface — regression coming
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Avg Exit Velo90.2 mph
lg avg 89.0 mph ▲+1.2 mphvs his norm —
253 / 50 BBE
Hard-Hit %48.6%
lg avg 40.0% ▲+8.6%vs his norm —
253 / 50 BBE
Barrel %10.7%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+2.7%vs his norm −0.1% ▼
253 / 60 BBE
xwOBA.364
lg avg .315 ▲+.049vs his norm —
418 / 160 PA
wOBA.395
lg avg .315 ▲+.080vs his norm —
418 / 200 PA
Strikeout %25.8%
lg avg 22.0% ▲+3.8%vs his norm —
418 / 60 PA
Walk %11.2%
lg avg 8.5% ▲+2.7%vs his norm —
418 / 120 PA
BABIP.359
lg avg .295 ▲+.064vs his norm +.080 ▲BABIP is above his ~.279 norm — expect it to fall.
253 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %14.3%
lg avg 11.0% ▲+3.3%vs his norm —
418 / 50 PA
Chase %35.5%
lg avg 28.5% ▲+7.0%vs his norm —
418 / 50 PA
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
Barrel% 10.7%→10.8%signal6 HR — Barrel% 10.7% (signal) held to career ~10.8% → projected 10.8%.
BABIP 0.359→0.333 regressednoise.257 AVG — BABIP 0.359 is noise, regressed toward xBA-implied 0.320 (xBA 0.260) → 0.333.
on-base + lineup26 R — his run rate over ~196 projected PA.
slugging + lineup20 RBI — his RBI rate over ~196 projected PA.
run rate / role9 SB — his steal rate (12 in 60 G) over ~196 projected PA.
rosterdeeprotational counting only
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.