week 10
this weekSELL-HIGH
last weekHOLD
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Scott Barlow
data as of June 3, 2026·week 10
Barlow is a sell-high — his ERA is BABIP luck.
His ERA sits at 3.08, but the number making it look good is his BABIP-against: .136, more than 150 points below the league average of .295. BABIP-against needs about 800 balls in play to stabilize; he has 69, so that gap is pure luck, not run-prevention skill. His expected ERA is 3.63, still below league average but a full half-run above his actual ERA — a signal that regression is coming. On the bright side, his hard-hit rate allowed (30.4%) is well below league average at a stable sample, and his strikeout rate (19.8%) is near average. But the ERA is built on batted-ball fortune that will not hold. Limited data: this call rests on a luck-driven gap that is too big to ignore. Sell high.
Sell High
high0.77
Drivers
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.136 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
- xeraNOISEluck-free xERA 3.63 is 0.55 above the ERA — regression coming
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed30.4%
lg avg 40.0% ▼−9.6%trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL69 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed7.2%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−0.8%trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL69 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.302
lg avg .315 ▼−.013too early to trust
NOISE111 / 200 TBF
xERA3.63
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.47too early to trust
NOISE111 / 200 TBF
ERA3.08
lg avg 4.10 ▼−1.02too early to trust
NOISE26.3 / 200 IP
Strikeout %19.8%
lg avg 22.0% ▼−2.2%trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL111 / 70 TBF
Walk %13.5%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+5.5%too early to trust
NOISE111 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.136
lg avg .295 ▼−.159too early to trust
NOISE69 / 800 BIP