117 PA · week 27
this weekHOLD
last weekHOLD
Sean Murphy
data as of September 27, 2026·week 27
Hold · wait & see strikeout rate 31% is stable and high, caps the floor — skill near league average (0.271); hold and wait — key skill metric not yet stable enough to call.med 0.50 (narrative held for review)
ROSHR 0AVG .000R 0RBI 0SB 0
Murphy is a hold — league average with a strikeout problem capping the floor.
ROS projects HR 0 YTD → 0 ROS, AVG .071 YTD → .000 ROS. Stable, rosterable; no clear edge to exploit either way.
VS His Norm
- Barrel %8.6%—−4.9% ▼vs his ~13.5% career norm
Drivers
- xwobaNOISEskill near league average (0.271)
- k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 31% is stable and high — caps the floor
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Avg Exit Velo87.3 mph
lg avg 89.0 mph ▼−1.7 mphvs his norm —
70 / 50 BBE
Hard-Hit %40.0%
lg avg 40.0% 0.0%vs his norm —
70 / 50 BBE
Barrel %8.6%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+0.6%vs his norm −4.9% ▼
70 / 60 BBE
xwOBA.271
lg avg .315 ▼−.044vs his norm —xwOBA is below the ~.315 league average — expect it to rise.
117 / 160 PA
wOBA.245
lg avg .315 ▼−.070vs his norm —wOBA is below the ~.315 league average — expect it to rise.
117 / 200 PA
Strikeout %30.8%
lg avg 22.0% ▲+8.8%vs his norm —
117 / 60 PA
Walk %9.4%
lg avg 8.5% ▲+0.9%vs his norm —Walk % is above the ~8.5% league average — expect it to fall.
117 / 120 PA
BABIP.224
lg avg .295 ▼−.071vs his norm −.032 ▼BABIP is below his ~.256 norm — expect it to rise.
70 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %16.1%
lg avg 11.0% ▲+5.1%vs his norm —
117 / 50 PA
Chase %34.6%
lg avg 28.5% ▲+6.1%vs his norm —
117 / 50 PA
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
Barrel% 8.6%→12.2%signal0 HR — Barrel% 8.6% (signal) lifted to career ~13.5% → projected 12.2%.
BABIP 0.224→0.339 regressednoise.000 AVG — BABIP 0.224 is noise, regressed toward xBA-implied 0.350 (xBA 0.200) → 0.339.
on-base + lineup0 R — his run rate over ~0 projected PA.
slugging + lineup0 RBI — his RBI rate over ~0 projected PA.
run rate / role0 SB — his steal rate (0 in 4 G) over ~0 projected PA.
rosterdroprotational counting only
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.