75 PA · week 25
this weekHOLD
last weekHOLD
Shay Whitcomb
data as of September 10, 2026·week 25
Hold · wait & see strikeout rate 31% is stable and high, caps the floor — skill near league average (0.249); hold and wait — key skill metric not yet stable enough to call.med 0.50 (narrative held for review)
ROSAVG .148HR 1R 1RBI 6SB 0
Whitcomb is a hold — below average with a strikeout problem
ROS projects AVG .118 YTD → .148 ROS. Stable, rosterable; no clear edge to exploit either way.
Drivers
- xwobaNOISEskill near league average (0.249)
- k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 31% is stable and high — caps the floor
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Avg Exit Velo86.8 mph
lg avg 89.0 mph ▼−2.2 mphvs his norm —Avg Exit Velo is below the ~89.0 mph league average — expect it to rise.
49 / 50 BBE
Hard-Hit %34.7%
lg avg 40.0% ▼−5.3%vs his norm —Hard-Hit % is below the ~40.0% league average — expect it to rise.
49 / 50 BBE
Barrel %12.2%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+4.2%vs his norm —Barrel % is above the ~8.0% league average — expect it to fall.
49 / 60 BBE
xwOBA.249
lg avg .315 ▼−.066vs his norm —xwOBA is below the ~.315 league average — expect it to rise.
75 / 160 PA
wOBA.221
lg avg .315 ▼−.094vs his norm —wOBA is below the ~.315 league average — expect it to rise.
75 / 200 PA
Strikeout %30.7%
lg avg 22.0% ▲+8.7%vs his norm —
75 / 60 PA
Walk %4.0%
lg avg 8.5% ▼−4.5%vs his norm —Walk % is below the ~8.5% league average — expect it to rise.
75 / 120 PA
BABIP.182
lg avg .295 ▼−.113vs his norm —BABIP is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
49 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %14.6%
lg avg 11.0% ▲+3.6%vs his norm —
75 / 50 PA
Chase %36.9%
lg avg 28.5% ▲+8.4%vs his norm —
75 / 50 PA
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
Barrel% 12.2%→11.4%noise1 HR — Barrel% 12.2% (noise) tempered to league ~8.0% → projected 11.4%.
BABIP 0.182→0.280 regressednoise.148 AVG — BABIP 0.182 is noise, regressed toward xBA-implied 0.286 (xBA 0.185) → 0.280.
on-base + lineup1 R — his run rate over ~25 projected PA.
slugging + lineup6 RBI — his RBI rate over ~25 projected PA.
run rate / role0 SB — his steal rate (0 in 14 G) over ~25 projected PA.
rosterdroprotational counting only
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.