82 PA · week 18
this weekHOLD
last week—
Spencer Jones
data as of July 23, 2026·week 18
Hold · wait & see strikeout rate 42% is stable and high, caps the floor — skill near league average (0.280); BABIP 0.405 sits above league and is not yet stable, expect some of the average to regress; hold and wait — key skill metric not yet stable enough to call.med 0.50 (narrative held for review)
ROSAVG .196HR 2R 0RBI 12SB 4
Jones is a hold — league average skill with structural risk.
ROS projects AVG .259 YTD → .196 ROS. Stable, rosterable; no clear edge to exploit either way.
Drivers
- xwobaNOISEskill near league average (0.280)
- k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 42% is stable and high — caps the floor
- babipNOISEBABIP 0.405 sits above league and is not yet stable — expect some of the average to regress
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Avg Exit Velo94.7 mph
lg avg 89.0 mph ▲+5.7 mphvs his norm —Avg Exit Velo is above the ~89.0 mph league average — expect it to fall.
39 / 50 BBE
Hard-Hit %63.2%
lg avg 40.0% ▲+23.2%vs his norm —Hard-Hit % is above the ~40.0% league average — expect it to fall.
39 / 50 BBE
Barrel %5.1%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−2.9%vs his norm —Barrel % is below the ~8.0% league average — expect it to rise.
39 / 60 BBE
xwOBA.280
lg avg .315 ▼−.035vs his norm —xwOBA is below the ~.315 league average — expect it to rise.
82 / 160 PA
wOBA.307
lg avg .315 ▼−.008vs his norm —wOBA is below the ~.315 league average — expect it to rise.
82 / 200 PA
Strikeout %41.5%
lg avg 22.0% ▲+19.5%vs his norm —
82 / 60 PA
Walk %11.0%
lg avg 8.5% ▲+2.5%vs his norm —Walk % is above the ~8.5% league average — expect it to fall.
82 / 120 PA
BABIP.405
lg avg .295 ▲+.110vs his norm —BABIP is above the ~.295 league average — expect it to fall.
39 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %22.1%
lg avg 11.0% ▲+11.1%vs his norm —
82 / 50 PA
Chase %34.8%
lg avg 28.5% ▲+6.3%vs his norm —
82 / 50 PA
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
Barrel% 5.1%→5.7%noise2 HR — Barrel% 5.1% (noise) lifted to league ~8.0% → projected 5.7%.
BABIP 0.405→0.334 regressednoise.196 AVG — BABIP 0.405 is noise, regressed toward xBA-implied 0.330 (xBA 0.198) → 0.334.
on-base + lineup0 R — his run rate over ~120 projected PA.
slugging + lineup12 RBI — his RBI rate over ~120 projected PA.
run rate / role4 SB — his steal rate (1 in 11 G) over ~120 projected PA.
rosterdroprotational counting only
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.