MLB Daily DeltaWeek 17 · July 18, 2026
354 PA · week 17
this weekHOLD
last weekHOLD

Steven Kwan

data as of July 18, 2026·week 17
Hold · steady skill near league average (0.309); hold steady — skill tracks near league, no edge either way.med 0.60
ROSHR 1AVG .238R 22RBI 10SB 2

Kwan is a hold — pedestrian output, reliable skill level.

His expected wOBA is .309, essentially league average, and that number is stable with 354 plate appearances behind it. The problem is that his actual wOBA, .286, sits below it, and the trajectory is not reversing course — his xwOBA has been stepping down across the sample. His contact quality is the real issue: an average exit velocity of 83.1 mph, a hard-hit rate of just 9.7%, and a barrel rate of 0.4% are all far below league average. He compensates with elite plate discipline — a 10.2% strikeout rate, 13.0% walk rate, and 3.2% swinging-strike rate — but the power is so absent that production caps out around league-average. There is no luck story pushing his line one way or the other. He is what his numbers say he is. Hold. 1 HR, 22 R, 10 RBI, 2 SB, .238 AVG — a low-upside asset you can safely drop in standard leagues.

VS His Norm

  • Barrel %0.4%−1.4%vs his ~1.8% career norm

Drivers

  • xwobaSIGNALskill near league average (0.309)
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Avg Exit Velo83.1 mph
83.1 mph*
lg avg 89.0 mph −5.9 mphvs his norm —
268 / 50 BBE
Hard-Hit %9.7%
9.7%*
lg avg 40.0% −30.3%vs his norm —
268 / 50 BBE
Barrel %0.4%
norm0.4%*
lg avg 8.0% −7.6%vs his norm −1.4%
268 / 60 BBE
xwOBA.309
.309*
lg avg .315 −.006vs his norm —
354 / 160 PA
wOBA.286
.286*
lg avg .315 −.029vs his norm —
354 / 200 PA
Strikeout %10.2%
10.2%*
lg avg 22.0% −11.8%vs his norm —
354 / 60 PA
Walk %13.0%
13.0%*
lg avg 8.5% +4.5%vs his norm —
354 / 120 PA
BABIP.251
norm.251*
lg avg .295 −.044vs his norm −.042 BABIP is below his ~.293 normexpect it to rise.
268 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %3.2%
3.2%*
lg avg 11.0% −7.8%vs his norm —
354 / 50 PA
Chase %22.1%
22.1%*
lg avg 28.5% −6.4%vs his norm —
354 / 50 PA

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
Barrel% 0.4%→1.0%signal1 HR — Barrel% 0.4% (signal) lifted to career ~1.8% → projected 1.0%.
BABIP 0.251→0.270 regressednoise.238 AVG — BABIP 0.251 is noise, regressed toward xBA-implied 0.280 (xBA 0.254) → 0.270.
on-base + lineup22 R — his run rate over ~195 projected PA.
slugging + lineup10 RBI — his RBI rate over ~195 projected PA.
run rate / role2 SB — his steal rate (2 in 55 G) over ~195 projected PA.
rosterdroprotational counting only

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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