MLB Daily DeltaWeek 31 · October 26, 2026
Engraved portrait of Thomas Saggese
180 PA · week 31
this weekHOLD
last weekHOLD

Thomas Saggese

STL·SS
data as of October 26, 2026·week 31
Hold · steady skill near league average (0.309); hold steady — skill tracks near league, no edge either way.med 0.60
ROSHR 0AVG .000R 0RBI 0SB 0

Saggese is a hold — league average, with a strikeout problem underneath.

His expected wOBA is .309, just under the league average of .315, and he has 180 plate appearances — past the 160 where that number becomes reliable. The contact quality is ordinary in both directions: 90.7 mph average exit velocity against a 89.0 league average, a 43.1% hard-hit rate against 40.0%, and 9.5% barrels against 8.0%. Nothing there is a selling point and nothing is a hole. What keeps the line from ever climbing is his swing decisions: a 27.2% strikeout rate against a 22.0% league average, a 14.3% swinging-strike rate and a 35.4% chase rate that run well past league. He is giving away too many at-bats in a profile that cannot afford them. The expected wOBA has been stepping down as the sample has grown, which is the wrong direction for anyone hoping the bat comes around. Nothing here is about to break one way or the other. Hold.

VS His Norm

  • Barrel %9.5%—+4.3% ▲vs his ~5.2% career norm

Drivers

  • xwobaSIGNALskill near league average (0.309)
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Avg Exit Velo90.7 mph
believable since Jun 490.7 mph*
lg avg 89.0 mph ▲+1.7 mphvs his norm —
116 / 50 BBE
Hard-Hit %43.1%
43.1%*
lg avg 40.0% ▲+3.1%vs his norm —
116 / 50 BBE
Barrel %9.5%
norm9.5%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+1.5%vs his norm +4.3% ▲
116 / 60 BBE
xwOBA.309
.309*
lg avg .315 ▼−.006vs his norm —
180 / 160 PA
wOBA.286
.286*
lg avg .315 ▼−.029vs his norm —wOBA is below the ~.315 league average — expect it to rise.
180 / 200 PA
Strikeout %27.2%
27.2%*
lg avg 22.0% ▲+5.2%vs his norm —
180 / 60 PA
Walk %7.2%
7.2%*
lg avg 8.5% ▼−1.3%vs his norm —
180 / 120 PA
BABIP.304
norm.304*
lg avg .295 ▲+.009vs his norm −.041 ▼BABIP is below his ~.345 norm — expect it to rise.
116 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %14.3%
14.3%*
lg avg 11.0% ▲+3.3%vs his norm —
180 / 50 PA
Chase %35.4%
35.4%*
lg avg 28.5% ▲+6.9%vs his norm —
180 / 50 PA

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
Barrel% 9.5%→6.8%signal0 HR — Barrel% 9.5% (signal) tempered to career ~5.2% → projected 6.8%.
BABIP 0.304→0.327 regressednoise.000 AVG — BABIP 0.304 is noise, regressed toward xBA-implied 0.330 (xBA 0.238) → 0.327.
on-base + lineup0 R — his run rate over ~0 projected PA.
slugging + lineup0 RBI — his RBI rate over ~0 projected PA.
run rate / role0 SB — his steal rate (0 in 30 G) over ~0 projected PA.
rosterdroprotational counting only

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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