166 PA · week 20
this weekSELL
last weekHOLD
Tim Tawa
data as of August 6, 2026·week 20
flipped from HOLD on August 6, 2026
Sell stable xwOBA 0.284 below league with no luck excuse; move on.med 0.61 (narrative held for review)
ROSHR 2AVG .214R 8RBI 11SB 0
Tawa is a sell — his skill is below league with no luck excuse.
Stable skill below league and not unlucky. Sell.
VS His Norm
- Barrel %7.6%—−1.7% ▼vs his ~9.3% career norm
Drivers
- xwobaSIGNALstable xwOBA 0.284 below league with no luck excuse
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Avg Exit Velo89.2 mph
lg avg 89.0 mph ▲+0.2 mphvs his norm —
119 / 50 BBE
Hard-Hit %40.3%
lg avg 40.0% ▲+0.3%vs his norm —
119 / 50 BBE
Barrel %7.6%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−0.4%vs his norm −1.7% ▼
119 / 60 BBE
xwOBA.284
lg avg .315 ▼−.031vs his norm —
166 / 160 PA
wOBA.283
lg avg .315 ▼−.032vs his norm —wOBA is below the ~.315 league average — expect it to rise.
166 / 200 PA
Strikeout %21.1%
lg avg 22.0% ▼−0.9%vs his norm —
166 / 60 PA
Walk %7.2%
lg avg 8.5% ▼−1.3%vs his norm —
166 / 120 PA
BABIP.248
lg avg .295 ▼−.047vs his norm −.004 ▼BABIP is below his ~.252 norm — expect it to rise.
119 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %13.2%
lg avg 11.0% ▲+2.2%vs his norm —
166 / 50 PA
Chase %30.8%
lg avg 28.5% ▲+2.3%vs his norm —
166 / 50 PA
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
Barrel% 7.6%→8.7%signal2 HR — Barrel% 7.6% (signal) lifted to career ~9.3% → projected 8.7%.
BABIP 0.248→0.267 regressednoise.214 AVG — BABIP 0.248 is noise, regressed toward xBA-implied 0.271 (xBA 0.222) → 0.267.
on-base + lineup8 R — his run rate over ~98 projected PA.
slugging + lineup11 RBI — his RBI rate over ~98 projected PA.
run rate / role0 SB — his steal rate (0 in 30 G) over ~98 projected PA.
rosterdroprotational counting only
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.