84 PA · week 27
this weekHOLD
last weekHOLD
Travis d'Arnaud
data as of September 27, 2026·week 27
Hold · wait & see strikeout rate 29% is stable and high, caps the floor — skill near league average (0.234); hold and wait — key skill metric not yet stable enough to call.med 0.50 (narrative held for review)
ROSAVG .000HR 0R 0RBI 0SB 0
d'Arnaud is a hold — league average bat with a strikeout problem
ROS projects AVG .200 YTD → .000 ROS. Stable, rosterable; no clear edge to exploit either way.
Drivers
- xwobaNOISEskill near league average (0.234)
- k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 29% is stable and high — caps the floor
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Avg Exit Velo86.7 mph
lg avg 89.0 mph ▼−2.3 mphvs his norm —
52 / 50 BBE
Hard-Hit %30.8%
lg avg 40.0% ▼−9.2%vs his norm —
52 / 50 BBE
Barrel %9.6%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+1.6%vs his norm −0.5% ▼Barrel % is below his ~10.1% norm — expect it to rise.
52 / 60 BBE
xwOBA.234
lg avg .315 ▼−.081vs his norm —xwOBA is below the ~.315 league average — expect it to rise.
84 / 160 PA
wOBA.222
lg avg .315 ▼−.093vs his norm —wOBA is below the ~.315 league average — expect it to rise.
84 / 200 PA
Strikeout %28.6%
lg avg 22.0% ▲+6.6%vs his norm —
84 / 60 PA
Walk %7.1%
lg avg 8.5% ▼−1.4%vs his norm —Walk % is below the ~8.5% league average — expect it to rise.
84 / 120 PA
BABIP.216
lg avg .295 ▼−.079vs his norm −.053 ▼BABIP is below his ~.269 norm — expect it to rise.
52 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %15.4%
lg avg 11.0% ▲+4.4%vs his norm —
84 / 50 PA
Chase %33.3%
lg avg 28.5% ▲+4.8%vs his norm —
84 / 50 PA
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
Barrel% 9.6%→10.0%noise0 HR — Barrel% 9.6% (noise) lifted to career ~10.1% → projected 10.0%.
BABIP 0.216→0.229 regressednoise.000 AVG — BABIP 0.216 is noise, regressed toward xBA-implied 0.230 (xBA 0.152) → 0.229.
on-base + lineup0 R — his run rate over ~0 projected PA.
slugging + lineup0 RBI — his RBI rate over ~0 projected PA.
run rate / role0 SB — his steal rate (0 in 14 G) over ~0 projected PA.
rosterdroprotational counting only
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.