224 PA · week 10
this weekBUY
last weekBUY
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Trent Grisham
data as of June 3, 2026·week 10
Grisham is a buy — elite contact, no luck needed.
His contact quality is stepping up across the season: hard-hit rate at 44.7%, well above the league norm, and his 12.7% barrel rate is also elite — both already stable at 150 batted balls. That underlying skill is now translating into a stable expected wOBA of .342, 27 points above league average, past 224 plate appearances. His actual wOBA sits at .318, slightly below expectation, meaning he is actually due for some positive regression, not negative. His walk rate is elite at 15.2% and his strikeout rate is well below league average, giving a high floor. The skill is real, the sample is solid, and the production is earned. Buy.
Buy
med0.65
Drivers
- xwobaSIGNALstable xwOBA 0.342, +0.027 vs league — production is earned
- hard_hit_pctSIGNALelite, already-stable contact quality
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Avg Exit Velo90.5 mph
lg avg 89.0 mph ▲+1.5 mphtrustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL150 / 50 BBE
Hard-Hit %44.7%
lg avg 40.0% ▲+4.7%trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL150 / 50 BBE
Barrel %12.7%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+4.7%trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL150 / 60 BBE
xwOBA.342
lg avg .315 ▲+.027trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL224 / 160 PA
wOBA.318
lg avg .315 ▲+.003trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL224 / 200 PA
Strikeout %17.9%
lg avg 22.0% ▼−4.1%trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL224 / 60 PA
Walk %15.2%
lg avg 8.5% ▲+6.7%trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL224 / 120 PA
BABIP.224
lg avg .295 ▼−.071too early to trust
NOISE150 / 800 BIP