251 PA · week 17
this weekHOLD
last weekHOLD
Tyler Freeman
data as of July 18, 2026·week 17
Hold · steady skill near league average (0.317); hold steady — skill tracks near league, no edge either way.med 0.60 (narrative held for review)
ROSAVG .256HR 1R 17RBI 17SB 6
Freeman is a hold — league average, stable, nothing pulling either way.
ROS projects HR 2 YTD → 1 ROS, AVG .278 YTD → .256 ROS. Stable, rosterable; no clear edge to exploit either way.
VS His Norm
- Barrel %1.5%—−1.2% ▼vs his ~2.7% career norm
Drivers
- xwobaSIGNALskill near league average (0.317)
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Avg Exit Velo88.0 mph
lg avg 89.0 mph ▼−1.0 mphvs his norm —
194 / 50 BBE
Hard-Hit %35.1%
lg avg 40.0% ▼−4.9%vs his norm —
194 / 50 BBE
Barrel %1.5%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−6.5%vs his norm −1.2% ▼
194 / 60 BBE
xwOBA.317
lg avg .315 ▲+.002vs his norm —
251 / 160 PA
wOBA.313
lg avg .315 ▼−.002vs his norm —
251 / 200 PA
Strikeout %12.4%
lg avg 22.0% ▼−9.6%vs his norm —
251 / 60 PA
Walk %4.4%
lg avg 8.5% ▼−4.1%vs his norm —
251 / 120 PA
BABIP.297
lg avg .295 ▲+.002vs his norm +.021 ▲BABIP is above his ~.276 norm — expect it to fall.
194 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %6.2%
lg avg 11.0% ▼−4.8%vs his norm —
251 / 50 PA
Chase %29.8%
lg avg 28.5% ▲+1.3%vs his norm —
251 / 50 PA
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
Barrel% 1.5%→2.1%signal1 HR — Barrel% 1.5% (signal) lifted to career ~2.7% → projected 2.1%.
BABIP 0.297→0.291 regressednoise.256 AVG — BABIP 0.297 is noise, regressed toward xBA-implied 0.289 (xBA 0.266) → 0.291.
on-base + lineup17 R — his run rate over ~172 projected PA.
slugging + lineup17 RBI — his RBI rate over ~172 projected PA.
run rate / role6 SB — his steal rate (5 in 40 G) over ~172 projected PA.
rosterdroprotational counting only
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.