363 PA · week 17
this weekHOLD
last weekHOLD
Xander Bogaerts
data as of July 18, 2026·week 17
Hold · steady skill near league average (0.315); hold steady — skill tracks near league, no edge either way.med 0.60 (narrative held for review)
ROSHR 3AVG .221R 21RBI 22SB 8
Bogaerts is a hold — league average, stable, no edge.
ROS projects HR 8 YTD → 3 ROS, AVG .243 YTD → .221 ROS. Stable, rosterable; no clear edge to exploit either way.
VS His Norm
- Barrel %6.4%—+0.3% ▲vs his ~6.1% career norm
Drivers
- xwobaSIGNALskill near league average (0.315)
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Avg Exit Velo88.1 mph
lg avg 89.0 mph ▼−0.9 mphvs his norm —
250 / 50 BBE
Hard-Hit %38.8%
lg avg 40.0% ▼−1.2%vs his norm —
250 / 50 BBE
Barrel %6.4%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−1.6%vs his norm +0.3% ▲
250 / 60 BBE
xwOBA.315
lg avg .315 .000vs his norm —
363 / 160 PA
wOBA.294
lg avg .315 ▼−.021vs his norm —
363 / 200 PA
Strikeout %19.0%
lg avg 22.0% ▼−3.0%vs his norm —
363 / 60 PA
Walk %11.3%
lg avg 8.5% ▲+2.8%vs his norm —
363 / 120 PA
BABIP.257
lg avg .295 ▼−.038vs his norm −.049 ▼BABIP is below his ~.306 norm — expect it to rise.
250 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %9.7%
lg avg 11.0% ▼−1.3%vs his norm —
363 / 50 PA
Chase %25.0%
lg avg 28.5% ▼−3.5%vs his norm —
363 / 50 PA
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
Barrel% 6.4%→6.3%signal3 HR — Barrel% 6.4% (signal) tempered to career ~6.1% → projected 6.3%.
BABIP 0.257→0.255 regressednoise.221 AVG — BABIP 0.257 is noise, regressed toward xBA-implied 0.254 (xBA 0.241) → 0.255.
on-base + lineup21 R — his run rate over ~189 projected PA.
slugging + lineup22 RBI — his RBI rate over ~189 projected PA.
run rate / role8 SB — his steal rate (9 in 56 G) over ~189 projected PA.
rosterdroprotational counting only
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.