MLB Daily DeltaWeek 27 · September 29, 2026
Portrait of Aaron Judge
Aaron Judge
NYY · RF
Change to
Lucas Spence
HOU · CF
Change to
Who's more valuable, rest of season

Too close to call.

They split your categories 0–0, 5 even. Take whoever fills a bigger need.

Head-to-head
HR
R
RBI
SB
AVG

Aaron Judge wins 0 (none); Lucas Spence wins 0 (none); 5 even.

04

Under the hood

Underlying skill — each value vs league avg
Avg Exit Velolg 89.0 · higher = better
Aaron Judge
94.0
Lucas Spence
91.9
Hard-Hit %lg 40.0% · higher = better
Aaron Judge
57.5%
Lucas Spence
48.5%
Barrel %lg 8.0% · higher = better
Aaron Judge
20.9%
Lucas Spence
12.1%
Chase %lg 28.5% · lower = better
Aaron Judge
26.4%
Lucas Spence
24.8%
Swinging-Strike %lg 11.0% · lower = better
Aaron Judge
14.2%
Lucas Spence
17.8%
xwOBAlg .315 · higher = better
Aaron Judge
.396
Lucas Spence
.305
stabilized — trust it · small sample yet · dashed = league avg · right = better
05

The tape

Rest-of-season projection · bold = leads
rest-of-season projection current season projection range
Rate · batting average
AVGhigher is better
Aaron Judge
.200.480
lg AVG .295
now .248
.000
Lucas Spence
.200.480
lg AVG .295
now .429
.000

Volume · counting stats
Home Runshigher is better
Aaron Judge
523.80
now 17
0
Lucas Spence
523.80
now 0
0
Runshigher is better
Aaron Judge
2060.20
now 43
0
Lucas Spence
2060.20
now 1
0
RBIhigher is better
Aaron Judge
2053.20
now 38
0
Lucas Spence
2053.20
now 0
0
Stolen Baseshigher is better
Aaron Judge
.0007
now 5
0
Lucas Spence
.0007
now 0
0
If you already own them — trade angle
BuyAaron Judge — buy.conf 0.76
Hold · wait & seeLucas Spence — hold.conf 0.50
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