MLB Daily DeltaWeek 25 · September 11, 2026
Portrait of Aaron Judge
Aaron Judge
NYY · RF
Change to
Nelson Velázquez
HOU · LF
Change to
Who's more valuable, rest of season

Too close to call.

They split your categories 22, 1 even. Take whoever fills a bigger need.

Head-to-head
HR
R
RBI
SB
AVG

Aaron Judge wins 2 (R, SB); Nelson Velázquez wins 2 (RBI, AVG); 1 even.

04

Under the hood

Underlying skill — each value vs league avg
Avg Exit Velolg 89.0 · higher = better
Aaron Judge
94.0
Nelson Velázquez
94.6
Hard-Hit %lg 40.0% · higher = better
Aaron Judge
57.1%
Nelson Velázquez
62.3%
Barrel %lg 8.0% · higher = better
Aaron Judge
21.1%
Nelson Velázquez
13.1%
Chase %lg 28.5% · lower = better
Aaron Judge
25.7%
Nelson Velázquez
31.5%
Swinging-Strike %lg 11.0% · lower = better
Aaron Judge
13.7%
Nelson Velázquez
19.9%
xwOBAlg .315 · higher = better
Aaron Judge
.410
Nelson Velázquez
.338
stabilized — trust it · small sample yet · dashed = league avg · right = better
05

The tape

Rest-of-season projection · bold = leads
rest-of-season projection current season projection range
Rate · batting average
AVGhigher is better
Aaron Judge
.200.440
lg AVG .295
now .248
.222
Nelson Velázquez
.200.440
lg AVG .295
now .375
.224

Volume · counting stats
Home Runshigher is better
Aaron Judge
523.40
now 17
1
Nelson Velázquez
523.40
now 1
1
Runshigher is better
Aaron Judge
2059.40
now 43
7
Nelson Velázquez
2059.40
now 2
6
RBIhigher is better
Aaron Judge
2052
now 38
6
Nelson Velázquez
2052
now 3
10
Stolen Baseshigher is better
Aaron Judge
.0007
now 5
1
Nelson Velázquez
.0007
now 0
0
If you already own them — trade angle
BuyAaron Judge — buy.conf 0.79
Buy LowNelson Velázquez — buy low. The dip is a window to acquire.conf 0.71
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