Rest of Season Projection
CarlosCategoryOtto
8HR8
44R ←43
32RBI ←31
2SB →13
.285AVG →.314
Current Season
CarlosCategoryOtto
3HR →4
22R →33
16RBI →24
1SB →10
.279AVG →.333
What Each Player's System Trusts
Carlos Correa
- xwobaNOISEskill near league average (0.364)
- babipNOISEBABIP 0.330 sits above league and is not yet stable — expect some of the average to regress
Otto Lopez
- babipNOISEBABIP 0.393 far above league and nowhere near stable — inflating the line
- xwobaSIGNALluck-free skill 0.341 is 0.034 below the surface — regression coming
Carlos Correa: 8 HR / 45 R. Otto Lopez: 9 HR / 44 R. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).