Rest of Season Projection
DerekCategoryMatt
7HR →8
29R ←26
20RBI →39
20SB ←4
.208AVG →.246
Current Season
DerekCategoryMatt
3HR →4
9R →14
6RBI →21
6SB ←2
.234AVG ←.211
What Each Player's System Trusts
Derek Hill
- xwobaNOISEskill near league average (0.296)
- k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 30% is stable and high — caps the floor
Matt Vierling
- xwobaSIGNALskill near league average (0.318)
Derek Hill: 7 HR / 29 R. Matt Vierling: 8 HR / 26 R. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).