Rest of Season Projection
JoeCategoryMickey
6HR ←2
25R →35
21RBI ←13
0SB0
.220AVG →.253
Current Season
JoeCategoryMickey
0HR0
7R →8
6RBI ←3
0SB0
.209AVG →.333
What Each Player's System Trusts
Joe Mack
- xwobaNOISEskill near league average (0.259)
- k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 30% is stable and high — caps the floor
Mickey Gasper
- babipNOISEBABIP 0.432 far above league and nowhere near stable — inflating the line
- xwobaNOISEluck-free skill 0.304 is 0.046 below the surface — regression coming
Joe Mack: 6 HR / 25 R. Mickey Gasper: 2 HR / 35 R. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).