Rest of Season Projection
JoeyCategoryNick
4HR ←1
31R →39
27RBI ←19
8SB ←4
.213AVG.214
Current Season
JoeyCategoryNick
1HR1
15R ←10
13RBI ←5
4SB ←1
.193AVG →.255
What Each Player's System Trusts
Joey Ortiz
- xwobaNOISEskill near league average (0.289)
Nick Allen
- babipNOISEBABIP 0.318 far above league and nowhere near stable — inflating the line
- xwobaNOISEluck-free skill 0.259 is 0.045 below the surface — regression coming
Joey Ortiz: 4 HR / 31 R. Nick Allen: 1 HR / 39 R. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).