week 19
this weekHOLD
last week—
Aaron Bummer
data as of August 3, 2026·week 19
Hold · wait & see skill near league average (6.65); hold and wait — key skill metric not yet stable enough to call.med 0.50 (narrative held for review)
ROSK 16ERA 3.70WHIP 1.24W 0–1SV 0
Bummer is a hold — league-wide noise, no buy or sell signal.
ROS projects K 13 YTD → 16 ROS. Stable, rosterable; no clear edge to exploit either way.
VS His Norm
- Strikeout %16.9%—−8.7% ▼vs his ~25.6% career norm
Drivers
- xeraNOISEskill near league average (6.65)
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed54.7%
lg avg 40.0% ▲+14.7%vs his norm —
53 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed15.1%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+7.1%vs his norm —Barrel % Allowed is above the ~8.0% league average — expect it to fall.
53 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.386
lg avg .315 ▲+.071vs his norm —xwOBA Allowed is above the ~.315 league average — expect it to fall.
77 / 200 TBF
xERA6.65
lg avg 4.10 ▲+2.55vs his norm —xERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
77 / 200 TBF
ERA7.63
lg avg 4.10 ▲+3.53vs his norm —ERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
15.3 / 200 IP
Strikeout %16.9%
lg avg 22.0% ▼−5.1%vs his norm −8.7% ▼
77 / 70 TBF
Walk %13.0%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+5.0%vs his norm +2.9% ▲Walk % is above his ~10.1% norm — expect it to fall.
77 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.261
lg avg .295 ▼−.034vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
53 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %10.6%
lg avg 11.0% ▼−0.4%vs his norm —
77 / 60 TBF
Chase %27.4%
lg avg 28.5% ▼−1.1%vs his norm —
77 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo90.5 mph
lg avg 94.0 mph ▼−3.5 mphvs his norm —
283 / 50 PITCHES
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
K% 16.9%→23.2%signal16 K — K% 16.9% (signal) lifted to career ~25.6% → projected 23.2% over ~14 remaining IP.
xERA 6.65noise3.70 ERA — xERA 6.65 (noise) blended 0% skill / 100% league 3.70 at 16 IP.
BB% 13.0% + contactnoise1.24 WHIP — a 13% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.293 gives a 1.66 skill WHIP, blended 0…
run support + role0-1 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (setup)0 SV — role: setup, not in the save mix.
rosterdeep3.70 ERA, 1.24 WHIP
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.