MLB Daily DeltaWeek 25 · September 10, 2026
Engraved portrait of Alex Jackson
72 PA · week 25
this weekSELL-HIGH
last weekNO CALL

Alex Jackson

MIN·C
data as of September 10, 2026·week 25
new call as of September 10, 2026
Sell High strikeout rate 33% is stable and high, caps the floor — BABIP 0.465 far above league and nowhere near stable, inflating the line; luck-free skill 0.223 is 0.113 below the surface, regression coming; sell into the hype before regression.high 0.83
ROSAVG .159HR 1R 2RBI 0SB 0

Jackson is a sell-high — the BABIP is carrying the line.

His actual wOBA is .336, but the number underneath is far lower: .223 expected wOBA, .113 below the surface. That gap is the story. His BABIP is .465 against a league average of .295, and BABIP needs around 800 balls in play to be reliable — he has 44. That gap is luck, not skill. His strikeout rate is 33%, well above the league average of 22%, and it is stable at 72 plate appearances — it is stepping up across the sample, and it caps the floor. When the balls in play stop falling for hits, there is nothing underneath waiting to break out. The surface is running hot on a stat that will not hold. Sell high. Regression to 1 HR / 2 R / 0 RBI / 0 SB / .159 AVG makes him a drop, not a hold — the trade window is the only asset left.

Drivers

  • babipNOISEBABIP 0.465 far above league and nowhere near stable — inflating the line
  • xwobaNOISEluck-free skill 0.223 is 0.113 below the surface — regression coming
  • k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 33% is stable and high — caps the floor
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Avg Exit Velo86.8 mph
86.8 mph*
lg avg 89.0 mph ▼−2.2 mphvs his norm —Avg Exit Velo is below the ~89.0 mph league average — expect it to rise.
44 / 50 BBE
Hard-Hit %34.1%
34.1%*
lg avg 40.0% ▼−5.9%vs his norm —Hard-Hit % is below the ~40.0% league average — expect it to rise.
44 / 50 BBE
Barrel %2.3%
norm2.3%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−5.7%vs his norm −9.0% ▼Barrel % is below his ~11.3% norm — expect it to rise.
44 / 60 BBE
xwOBA.223
.223*
lg avg .315 ▼−.092vs his norm —xwOBA is below the ~.315 league average — expect it to rise.
72 / 160 PA
wOBA.336
.336*
lg avg .315 ▲+.021vs his norm —wOBA is above the ~.315 league average — expect it to fall.
72 / 200 PA
Strikeout %33.3%
believable since Jul 2333.3%*
lg avg 22.0% ▲+11.3%vs his norm —
72 / 60 PA
Walk %2.8%
2.8%*
lg avg 8.5% ▼−5.7%vs his norm —Walk % is below the ~8.5% league average — expect it to rise.
72 / 120 PA
BABIP.465
norm.465*
lg avg .295 ▲+.170vs his norm +.235 ▲BABIP is above his ~.230 norm — expect it to fall.
44 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %17.3%
17.3%*
lg avg 11.0% ▲+6.3%vs his norm —
72 / 50 PA
Chase %41.6%
41.6%*
lg avg 28.5% ▲+13.1%vs his norm —
72 / 50 PA

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
Barrel% 2.3%→9.7%noise1 HR — Barrel% 2.3% (noise) lifted to career ~11.3% → projected 9.7%.
BABIP 0.465→0.385 regressednoise.159 AVG — BABIP 0.465 is noise, regressed toward xBA-implied 0.380 (xBA 0.188) → 0.385.
on-base + lineup2 R — his run rate over ~32 projected PA.
slugging + lineup0 RBI — his RBI rate over ~32 projected PA.
run rate / role0 SB — his steal rate (0 in 4 G) over ~32 projected PA.
rosterdroprotational counting only

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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