MLB Daily DeltaWeek 17 · July 18, 2026
Engraved portrait of Andrew Benintendi
288 PA · week 17
this weekBUY
last weekHOLD

Andrew Benintendi

data as of July 18, 2026·week 17
flipped from HOLD on July 18, 2026
Buy stable xwOBA 0.330, +0.015 vs league, production is earned; elite, already-stable contact quality; add now.med 0.63
ROSHR 4AVG .239R 20RBI 25SB 1

Benintendi is a buy — contact quality is trending up

His hard-hit rate has stepped up as the season has gone on, and it has settled at 49.0% — nine points above the league average of 40.0%, and based on 195 batted balls, far past the 50 needed for reliability. His expected wOBA is .330, 15 points above league, and it has been rising, which means he is earning the production. His actual wOBA is .316, just slightly below the expected mark, so no luck story is hiding the skill — the line is the skill. He is making good contact and the ball is falling at a normal rate. The bat is real. Buy.

VS His Norm

  • Barrel %9.7%+3.4%vs his ~6.3% career norm

Drivers

  • xwobaSIGNALstable xwOBA 0.330, +0.015 vs league — production is earned
  • hard_hit_pctSIGNALelite, already-stable contact quality
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Avg Exit Velo89.2 mph
89.2 mph*
lg avg 89.0 mph +0.2 mphvs his norm —
195 / 50 BBE
Hard-Hit %49.0%
49.0%*
lg avg 40.0% +9.0%vs his norm —
195 / 50 BBE
Barrel %9.7%
norm9.7%*
lg avg 8.0% +1.7%vs his norm +3.4%
195 / 60 BBE
xwOBA.330
.330*
lg avg .315 +.015vs his norm —
288 / 160 PA
wOBA.316
believable since Jun 6.316*
lg avg .315 +.001vs his norm —
288 / 200 PA
Strikeout %24.0%
24.0%*
lg avg 22.0% +2.0%vs his norm —
288 / 60 PA
Walk %8.3%
8.3%*
lg avg 8.5% −0.2%vs his norm —
288 / 120 PA
BABIP.288
norm.288*
lg avg .295 −.007vs his norm +.019 BABIP is above his ~.269 normexpect it to fall.
195 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %14.6%
14.6%*
lg avg 11.0% +3.5%vs his norm —
288 / 50 PA
Chase %31.7%
31.7%*
lg avg 28.5% +3.2%vs his norm —
288 / 50 PA

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
Barrel% 9.7%→8.0%signal4 HR — Barrel% 9.7% (signal) tempered to career ~6.3% → projected 8.0%.
BABIP 0.288→0.320 regressednoise.239 AVG — BABIP 0.288 is noise, regressed toward xBA-implied 0.330 (xBA 0.259) → 0.320.
on-base + lineup20 R — his run rate over ~177 projected PA.
slugging + lineup25 RBI — his RBI rate over ~177 projected PA.
run rate / role1 SB — his steal rate (1 in 53 G) over ~177 projected PA.
rosterdroprotational counting only

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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