MLB Daily DeltaWeek 31 · October 26, 2026
Engraved portrait of Andy Pages
574 PA · week 31
this weekBUY
last weekBUY

Andy Pages

data as of October 26, 2026·week 31
Buy stable xwOBA 0.343, +0.028 vs league, production is earned; elite, already-stable contact quality; add now.med 0.66
ROSAVG .000HR 0R 0RBI 0SB 0

Pages is a buy — the contact is climbing and the line is earned.

His hard-hit rate is 42.3%, above the league's 40.0%, and it has been stepping up across the sample. He has 404 batted balls, far past the 50 it takes for contact quality to become reliable, so this is the bat now, not a fast start. The expected wOBA agrees: .343, twenty-eight points above league average, on 574 plate appearances that clear the 160 needed to trust it. His actual wOBA of .352 sits right on top of that expected number, so there is no inflated BABIP to give back. He strikes out less than league at 19.7% and walks at a league-average 8.5% clip. Nothing here is propped up by luck. Buy.

VS His Norm

  • Barrel %7.9%—−1.4% ▼vs his ~9.3% career norm

Drivers

  • xwobaSIGNALstable xwOBA 0.343, +0.028 vs league — production is earned
  • hard_hit_pctSIGNALelite, already-stable contact quality
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Avg Exit Velo88.9 mph
88.9 mph*
lg avg 89.0 mph ▼−0.1 mphvs his norm —
404 / 50 BBE
Hard-Hit %42.3%
42.3%*
lg avg 40.0% ▲+2.3%vs his norm —
404 / 50 BBE
Barrel %7.9%
norm7.9%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−0.1%vs his norm −1.4% ▼
404 / 60 BBE
xwOBA.343
.343*
lg avg .315 ▲+.028vs his norm —
574 / 160 PA
wOBA.352
.352*
lg avg .315 ▲+.037vs his norm —
574 / 200 PA
Strikeout %19.7%
19.7%*
lg avg 22.0% ▼−2.3%vs his norm —
574 / 60 PA
Walk %8.5%
8.5%*
lg avg 8.5% 0.0%vs his norm —
574 / 120 PA
BABIP.307
norm.307*
lg avg .295 ▲+.012vs his norm +.000 ▲BABIP is above his ~.307 norm — expect it to fall.
404 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %10.4%
10.4%*
lg avg 11.0% ▼−0.6%vs his norm —
574 / 50 PA
Chase %31.6%
31.6%*
lg avg 28.5% ▲+3.1%vs his norm —
574 / 50 PA

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
Barrel% 7.9%→8.4%signal0 HR — Barrel% 7.9% (signal) lifted to career ~9.3% → projected 8.4%.
BABIP 0.307→0.296 regressednoise.000 AVG — BABIP 0.307 is noise, regressed toward xBA-implied 0.285 (xBA 0.274) → 0.296.
on-base + lineup0 R — his run rate over ~0 projected PA.
slugging + lineup0 RBI — his RBI rate over ~0 projected PA.
run rate / role0 SB — his steal rate (7 in 60 G) over ~0 projected PA.
rosterdroprotational counting only

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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