MLB Daily DeltaWeek 25 · September 10, 2026
Engraved portrait of Andy Pages
550 PA · week 25
this weekBUY
last weekBUY

Andy Pages

LAD·CF
data as of September 10, 2026·week 25
ON THE 10-DAY IL
Buy stable xwOBA 0.340, +0.025 vs league, production is earned; elite, already-stable contact quality; add now.med 0.65
ROSAVG .247HR 1R 6RBI 9SB 1

Pages is a buy — the contact is climbing and the sample backs it.

His hard-hit rate has stepped up across the season, now at 42.2% on 391 batted balls, and his expected wOBA has climbed with it to .340 — .025 above the league average of .315. Both numbers are past the point where they become reliable, so this is not a small-sample reading. His actual wOBA is .346, essentially matching the expected figure, so there is no inflated BABIP driving the line. The plate skills support it too: a 19.5% strikeout rate below league average and a walk rate right at league. His chase rate of 31.6% is a touch high, but contact quality this stable and climbing is the real signal. Buy.

VS His Norm

  • Barrel %7.7%—−1.6% ▼vs his ~9.3% career norm

Drivers

  • xwobaSIGNALstable xwOBA 0.340, +0.025 vs league — production is earned
  • hard_hit_pctSIGNALelite, already-stable contact quality
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Avg Exit Velo88.8 mph
88.8 mph*
lg avg 89.0 mph ▼−0.2 mphvs his norm —
391 / 50 BBE
Hard-Hit %42.2%
42.2%*
lg avg 40.0% ▲+2.2%vs his norm —
391 / 50 BBE
Barrel %7.7%
norm7.7%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−0.3%vs his norm −1.6% ▼
391 / 60 BBE
xwOBA.340
.340*
lg avg .315 ▲+.025vs his norm —
550 / 160 PA
wOBA.346
.346*
lg avg .315 ▲+.031vs his norm —
550 / 200 PA
Strikeout %19.5%
19.5%*
lg avg 22.0% ▼−2.5%vs his norm —
550 / 60 PA
Walk %8.2%
8.2%*
lg avg 8.5% ▼−0.3%vs his norm —
550 / 120 PA
BABIP.305
norm.305*
lg avg .295 ▲+.010vs his norm −.002 ▼BABIP is below his ~.307 norm — expect it to rise.
391 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %10.5%
10.5%*
lg avg 11.0% ▼−0.5%vs his norm —
550 / 50 PA
Chase %31.6%
31.6%*
lg avg 28.5% ▲+3.1%vs his norm —
550 / 50 PA

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
Barrel% 7.7%→8.2%signal1 HR — Barrel% 7.7% (signal) lifted to career ~9.3% → projected 8.2%.
BABIP 0.305→0.293 regressednoise.247 AVG — BABIP 0.305 is noise, regressed toward xBA-implied 0.282 (xBA 0.272) → 0.293.
on-base + lineup6 R — his run rate over ~43 projected PA.
slugging + lineup9 RBI — his RBI rate over ~43 projected PA.
run rate / role1 SB — his steal rate (7 in 60 G) over ~43 projected PA.
rosterdroprotational counting only

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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