Brandon Valenzuela

Valenzuela is a hold — average skill, nothing pulling either way.

His expected wOBA is .313, two points under the league average of .315, and he has 271 plate appearances — past the point where that number becomes reliable. That is the whole profile: a skill level that sits right on the league line, with no suppressed BABIP inflating the line and no cold bounces dragging it down. His actual wOBA is .303, close enough that the surface is not lying about the skill. The supporting contact numbers say the same thing from a different angle: 88.4 mph average exit velocity against a 89.0 mph league mark, a 38.4% hard-hit rate against 40%, and a 7.0% barrel rate against 8.0%. Nothing here is a mispriced asset. He does strike out more than league (25.5%) and walk more (10.7%), which keeps the shape of the line mildly volatile without changing the level. The expected wOBA has been ticking down across the sample, so this is not a buy waiting to break out. Hold.