80 PA · week 31
this weekHOLD
last weekHOLD
Brett Callahan
data as of October 26, 2026·week 31
Hold · wait & see strikeout rate 34% is stable and high, caps the floor — skill near league average (0.296); BABIP 0.318 sits above league and is not yet stable, expect some of the average to regress; hold and wait — key skill metric not yet stable enough to call.med 0.50 (narrative held for review)
ROSAVG .000HR 0R 0RBI 0SB 0
Callahan is a hold — the average is borrowed, the strikeouts are not.
ROS projects AVG .444 YTD → .000 ROS. Stable, rosterable; no clear edge to exploit either way.
Drivers
- xwobaNOISEskill near league average (0.296)
- k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 34% is stable and high — caps the floor
- babipNOISEBABIP 0.318 sits above league and is not yet stable — expect some of the average to regress
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Avg Exit Velo89.9 mph
lg avg 89.0 mph ▲+0.9 mphvs his norm —Avg Exit Velo is above the ~89.0 mph league average — expect it to fall.
45 / 50 BBE
Hard-Hit %44.4%
lg avg 40.0% ▲+4.4%vs his norm —Hard-Hit % is above the ~40.0% league average — expect it to fall.
45 / 50 BBE
Barrel %11.1%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+3.1%vs his norm —Barrel % is above the ~8.0% league average — expect it to fall.
45 / 60 BBE
xwOBA.296
lg avg .315 ▼−.019vs his norm —xwOBA is below the ~.315 league average — expect it to rise.
80 / 160 PA
wOBA.274
lg avg .315 ▼−.041vs his norm —wOBA is below the ~.315 league average — expect it to rise.
80 / 200 PA
Strikeout %33.8%
lg avg 22.0% ▲+11.8%vs his norm —
80 / 60 PA
Walk %8.8%
lg avg 8.5% ▲+0.3%vs his norm —Walk % is above the ~8.5% league average — expect it to fall.
80 / 120 PA
BABIP.318
lg avg .295 ▲+.023vs his norm —BABIP is above the ~.295 league average — expect it to fall.
45 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %17.0%
lg avg 11.0% ▲+6.0%vs his norm —
80 / 50 PA
Chase %40.1%
lg avg 28.5% ▲+11.6%vs his norm —
80 / 50 PA
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
Barrel% 11.1%→10.5%noise0 HR — Barrel% 11.1% (noise) tempered to league ~8.0% → projected 10.5%.
BABIP 0.318→0.235 regressednoise.000 AVG — BABIP 0.318 is noise, regressed toward xBA-implied 0.230 (xBA 0.211) → 0.235.
on-base + lineup0 R — his run rate over ~0 projected PA.
slugging + lineup0 RBI — his RBI rate over ~0 projected PA.
run rate / role0 SB — his steal rate (0 in 3 G) over ~0 projected PA.
rosterdroprotational counting only
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.